As a reminder of how ugly markets can be, this holiday season, Your Survival Guy’s been thumbing through Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises (fourth edition) by Charles P. Kindleberger. I’ll offer some titles that also work: Bad Stuff Happens, Look Out Below, They Never Learn. The first edition was published in 1978 with plenty of pre-World War II disasters to cover. But what has me thinking this morning is that the latest one, the fourth edition, was written in 2000 before the dot com crash. Little did Kindleberger know what was about to take place, or did he sense … [Read more...]
“What Have You Done for Me Lately?”
In a “What have you done for me lately?” world, it’s easy for investors to see this year’s returns on the S&P 500 and compare their performance. That’s short-sighted. Because if we look over the last two years, for example, the S&P 500 has basically returned to where it was this time in 2021. What’s lost on many is that a dividend-centric approach offered a way to be paid while the market price spun its wheels. Now then, what’s not often discussed is how many investors bailed out of stocks on the way down and missed the rebound, and in their frustration, are now asking, “Why am … [Read more...]
“Take Cover! Get Out of the Market!”
In my conversations and emails with you, you tell me about the many predictions being made for next year. As I wrote to you yesterday, one economist, who seems to be wrong at every turn, is calling for a major correction next year—predicting the stock market bubble will burst. Another manager up in Boston is calling for one, too, and has been for a while. I’m not looking to pile on with criticism. But you may have heard another hedge fund guy on Fox talk about commercial real estate “opportunities” as if he’s talking up his book to dig out from losses. Whether it’s his book, a real book, or … [Read more...]
A Stock Market Boom or Bust for 2024?
Your Survival Guy received some Christmas emails asking about a certain economist’s stock market prediction that the bubble’s about to burst. My take? Why ruin Christmas? Maybe he’s right, maybe he’s wrong. What I know for sure is he’s in the business of selling books and making headlines. That’s not acting like a fiduciary. I remember back in 1998 when this same economist wrote a book calling for the roaring 2000s. The roar turned out to be the sound from investors pummeled by the tech bust a few years later. Then he called for, in 2004, another boom to come, taking a pass on the … [Read more...]
Could Commercial Real Estate Get Even Harder in 2024?
Remember when pension funds went all in on commercial real estate? Peter Grant is raising the alarm over the market for office rentals, saying the difficulties of 2023 will be dwarfed by 2024. Grant writes: Office building owners, hammered by falling demand and high interest rates, struggled in 2023. But they mostly managed to stay afloat. That is going to be a lot harder to do next year. Many landlords have been able to extend their loans, often by putting in more capital. But a lot of those extensions are now expiring, and owners are losing hope that occupancy rates will rebound … [Read more...]
The Coaches
“As Florida State linebackers coach in 1972, Bill Parcells read the preface for Bill Libby’s The Coaches, published that year by Regnery. Feeling that it eloquently described his profession, Parcells condensed the 1,039-word introduction into roughly 390 words that hit home the most. The coach laminated the shortened version. Throughout his long football career, he re-read it, especially during tough times. Below is the exact wording from Parcells’s sheet,” from Parcells: A Football Life, by Bill Parcells and Nunyo Demasio. He is called “Coach.” It is a difficult job, and there is no clear … [Read more...]
Vanguard GNMA
Your Survival Guy’s been digging through his investment attic looking for wrapping paper and came across these four letters: GNMA. It’s been a while since I’ve written to you about Vanguard GNMA, and like most investments I make, I still own it. I’m a collector. A pack rat, if you will. I find things I forgot I have all the time. But I never really forgot about Vanguard GNMA. I know many of you, too, wonder about it. Let’s talk about it. It’s been slim pickings through the most recent years with Vanguard GNMA. But those are the cards we were dealt by the Fed’s zero percent interest rates … [Read more...]
Major Tax Changes for 2026: Will You Be Affected?
If the 2017 Trump tax cuts aren't extended, there will be some major changes to the tax code in 2026, and you could be affected. The Cato Institute's Adam N. Michel explains the changes and puts them into a neatly displayed chart you can find below. Michel writes: In 2017, Republicans cut and reformed taxes for individuals and businesses. The vast majority of the changes for individuals expire at the end of 2025, which will increase taxes in 2026 by about $400 billion a year. There is broad bipartisan support to extend about three‐quarters of the tax cuts. In addition to cutting … [Read more...]
Investing Habits of the Fairly Wealthy: #1 Y-O-U
The investing world lost our Confucius, Charlie Munger, this year. His words of wisdom were the fortune cookies of finance—short and sweet. Perfect sized treats in a world overstuffed with information. Munger said: “When you mix raisins and turds, you've still got turds.” “People calculate too much and think too little.” “A lot of our respected financial institutions are just casinos in drag.” “Step by step you get ahead, but rarely in fast spurts.” Munger, with his billions in wealth, put his money where his mouth was, a rarity in a “look at me” Tik Tok world. He lived in the same … [Read more...]
BIDENFLATION: Why Christmas Costs So Much This Year
You can feel it. Every time you head to the store, or click the "Buy Now" button online, you feel it a little more. Christmas is more expensive this year. Inflation has done a number on Americans' spending power in the Biden years, and it's still adding up. The TIPP Insights editorial board explains why Americans "can expect to spend more-for-less this Christmas." They write: The dark reality of Bidenomics is 16.7% inflation under President Biden’s watch. When he took office, inflation was at just 1.4%. Inflation has stayed above the Federal Reserve's 2% target for 34 consecutive months … [Read more...]
- « Previous Page
- 1
- …
- 12
- 13
- 14
- 15
- 16
- …
- 98
- Next Page »