Your Survival Guy

Preparing your investments and family for when disaster strikes.

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A Love Story about Private Wealth

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You’ll be hard-pressed to find a better love story than this courtesy of Seth Siegel at the WSJ: How does one overcome almost unimaginable horror and trauma? For Holocaust survivors Howard and Lottie Marcus, the healing came, in part, from the hope that they could help to provide refuge for other Jews who might find themselves at risk. But after restarting their broken lives in America, this modest couple could never have imagined that they would end up giving what is likely the largest single charitable gift in Israel’s history—$400 million—to be announced June 24. Howard and Lottie were … [Read more...]

Mafia Impresario Meyer Lansky: The Riviera Story

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My friend Jack Colhoun wrote the book on Cuba. It’s called Gangsterismo: The United States, Cuba and The Mafia, 1933 to 1966. In his Op-ed, recently published on the History News Network, he writes, “The heirs of Meyer Lansky, the impresario of the North American Mafia gambling colony in Cuba (1933-1958) are betting on a big payback from the negotiations between the United States and Cuba to normalize relations between the two countries.” And concludes, “To portray Lansky as an aggrieved victim of Cuba is to stand history on its head. There should be no compensation for the heirs of the former … [Read more...]

The First RAGE Gauge Reading Signals High Risk

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For June 2016, my RAGE Gauge signals: High Risk Tension is high on the social and economic fronts. FBI Background checks continue to trend higher, dissatisfaction with the direction of the country is trending high, and the underemployment rate (U6) isn’t real encouraging in this sluggish economy. But it’s a sluggish economy with inflation. You need only look at your checkbook and credit card bills, not the government’s worthless CPI, to find it: Education, Condo’s in Boston/NYC/Miami, food (the type you buy) and taxes to name a few are sky-high. Gold is up 20% YTD. Your dollars are getting … [Read more...]

Hedge Funds on Wrong Side of Brexit

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What will be the bigger loss for hedge funds, the money lost on their exclusive exit polls, or bets that are no longer in the money? The 2 and 20 crowd— they take a 2% fee per year on your portfolio and 20% of your gains—has got to be on the wrong side of this trade. All night/day Thursday the polls had Brexit as a Remain. The 2 and 20 crowd, and their leverage, are playing God with other people’s money—you know, retired teachers who have entrusted their retirement to the government who outsources that responsibility to these so-called fiduciaries. ZeroHedge quotes James Butterfill, head of … [Read more...]

RAGE Gauge: Can’t Get No Satisfaction!

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Another component of my RAGE Gauge is Americans' dissatisfaction with the direction of the country as measured by Gallup's poll of "Satisfaction With the United States." The poll asks responders the simple question "In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?" This is a great gauge of Americans' overall contentedness, and elevated dissatisfaction could be a sign of pending social unrest or other dislocations in the economy as a whole. Today Americans are dissatisfied at rates higher than the fifteen year average. This indicates … [Read more...]

RAGE Gauge: Can't Get No Satisfaction!

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Another component of my RAGE Gauge is Americans' dissatisfaction with the direction of the country as measured by Gallup's poll of "Satisfaction With the United States." The poll asks responders the simple question "In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?" This is a great gauge of Americans' overall contentedness, and elevated dissatisfaction could be a sign of pending social unrest or other dislocations in the economy as a whole. Today Americans are dissatisfied at rates higher than the fifteen year average. This indicates … [Read more...]

Dividend Growth is Key

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BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment Strategist Richard Turnill on the importance of dividend growth. This week’s chart shows how U.S. dividend stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 over the past year, a trend we have also seen in other regions, as ultralow bond yields have intensified the hunt for income. Year-to-date flows into dividend-focused exchange traded products (ETPs) have reached $7.4 billion, more than seven times the 2015 total, according to our data. So what’s next for dividend stocks? We don’t see strong demand for dividend stocks dissipating anytime due to low interest … [Read more...]

RAGE Gauge: The Real Unemployment Rate

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The typical headline unemployment numbers the American news media reports (U3) are inadequate for measuring not just unemployment, but underemployment. Many part time employees would prefer full time employment. The U6 unemployment number you see above includes more of the employees left out by the headline number; those who are marginally attached to the workforce, and those who are employed part time for economic reasons. The effect of the expanded definition is a fuller understanding of how many Americans aren't working as much as they would like to. The U6 rate is an important component … [Read more...]

Pensions: Left on the Hook will be the Taxpayer

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Ike Brannon, a visiting fellow at the Cato Institute, explains how the Puerto Rico rescue makes state pensioners the big winner. Right now, states cannot declare bankruptcy, which is one reason why states have traditionally been able to borrow at such low rates of interest. However, financial markets have come to realize, belatedly, that Illinois (along with other states) is making promises to its lenders that it will have trouble keeping. Puerto Rico was not supposed to be eligible for bankruptcy either, but the legislation before Congress will allow the territory to reduce its debt, both … [Read more...]