He had been planning his retirement for years. Hall of Fame pitcher Nolan Ryan wanted to be a cowboy after hanging up his baseball uniform. But he found the transition to retirement a lot harder than he thought it would be. It wasn't the long rides or the tough work of being a rancher that were hard on Ryan, it was the loss of his past life that gave him trouble. He missed going into the ball club and being part of a team every day. In my experience with clients transitioning from work to retirement, Ryan is not unique. Many people entering retirement are greeted by mixed emotions, even … [Read more...]
You’ve Read the Last Issue of Intelligence Report Now What? Part III
In his first issue of Richard C. Young’s Intelligence Report, Dick wrote, “Hugh Johnson is known worldwide as an expert and writer on gardening and wine. In Connoisseur’s June/85 issue Michael and Ariane Batterberry wrote about Johnson’s ability to communicate to his readers saying he ‘never pontificates,’ and that Johnson feels ‘once inflamed by a subject, the wise outsider will write a book about it before he learns too much and becomes an insider, so entangled in arcana that he can no longer strike through the nub of things.” “I hope my Intelligence Report will achieve Johnson’s worthy … [Read more...]
The Truth Behind the S&P 500: Part VI
I have grave concerns with the S&P 500 (See parts one, two, three, four and five of my series dedicated to those concerns). You can see in my chart below the index would need to fall by 38% based on yesterday’s closing value to trade at a normalized valuation. Doing as well as the S&P 500, or the market, is a double-edged sword. Receiving market performance guarantees you’ll never beat it. Believe me you’ll want to beat it when it crashes, because the grief from losses far outweighs the jubilation from gains. … [Read more...]
Which State Won America’s 2017 Migration Games?
Each year Americans from all parts of the country make the decision to leave their home states looking for greener pastures in others. The destinations aren't always the same, but one thing is constant, when opportunity arises, Americans move to meet it. The Tax Foundation points out that states are competing with each other for citizens, and that one way they do that is by attempting to offer the best tax rates possible. Vermont led the nation in terms of inbound migration as a percent of total moves in 2017. Using migration data collected by United Van Lines, Margan Scarboro … [Read more...]
How Will Americans Pay Tax on Their Crypto-Currencies?
As I explain in my four part series on bitcoin (read parts one, two, three, and four), I'm a skeptic of crypto-currency trading and I don't own any crypto-currencies. I believe, much like Warren Buffett told CNBC on Wednesday, that the crypto-craze won't end well. The IRS has given some guidance on how to account for sales of crypto-currencies, but keeping track of all sales may be hard. Brian Fung explains in The Washington Post: The most recent IRS guidance on the matter is from 2014, when it said taxpayers should treat their virtual currency like property. Under that rule, taxpayers … [Read more...]
Amazon Seeks New Office Space in Boston
Amazon is seeking more office space for its existing operations but the move could foreshadow its selection of its next headquarters. The Boston Globe's Tim Logan reports: Amazon is on the hunt for as much as 1 million square feet of office space in Boston, adding a new level of intrigue to the retail giant’s plans as it whittles down the list of the cities competing for its second headquarters. The Seattle company is negotiating with a Seaport developer to lease an entire office building, and possibly two, to continue its expansion in the city, according to real estate industry … [Read more...]
My 2018 Investment Perspective
I’ve always been amazed at how quickly investors forget what it feels like to lose money. One of my favorite economists, whom will remain unnamed, is a constant stock market cheerleader. He’s never met a market he hasn’t liked. I love his optimism and I too believe, like he does, that Trump’s tax cuts will keep us chugging along for some time. But that doesn’t mean stocks will always rise like the sun. Where I take issue with this perma-bull economist is his call that the bull market in bonds is over. He also says that bonds, more than stocks, are in bubble territory. He takes the … [Read more...]
RAGE Gauge: January Euphoria
Investors are in what Bloomberg writer Adam Haigh calls a euphoria today. According to my RAGE Gauge, Americans are still not factoring in much, if any, risk. While the economy is strong and the stock market is up, it's always a good idea to be wary when others are not. When you hear words like euphoria being used to describe investor mentality, it pays to be skeptical. Haigh writes: Euphoria on Wall Street that stocks can just keep on building on record highs is getting so stratospheric that it’s reaching levels that previously signaled a slump. Analysts are ratcheting up their forecasts … [Read more...]
Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future
One of my takeaways from the book Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future by Ashlee Vance, is Musk’s ability to stay focused on his long-term goal of putting humans on Mars. At his rocket company, SpaceX, there was some grumbling from employees about when the company would file for an IPO enabling them to cash in on their rigorous years of work for the task master Musk. Here’s his email to employees (my emphasis in bold): Per my recent comments, I am increasingly concerned about SpaceX going public before the Mars transport system is in place. Creating the technology … [Read more...]
The ‘Hated’ Stock Market Rally
Do investors even believe this stock market? Despite reaping the benefits of the second longest bull market on record, investors seem to hate the rally. Wall Street Journal reporters Akane Otani and Chris Dieterich report: Rather than celebrating this wealth-generating machine, individual investors have expressed in multiple surveys just how little enthusiasm they have for this stock market. For years, analysts have described an “unloved” or even “hated” stock rally, where prices defiantly rise despite one of the weakest U.S. economic recoveries on record, Washington’s policy sclerosis and … [Read more...]
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