Your Survival Guy

Preparing your investments and family for when disaster strikes.

Disclosure

Your Survival Guy: Clearing the Decks, Buying a Boat, Seeing the World and More

By

OK, some updates for you from Your Survival Guy to clear the decks. The new Grady White is in (engines too) and ready for delivery. It’s a Canyon 306 with twin Yamaha 300s. The name: Tom Sawyer. I’ll send you pics next week. Here’s how to buy a boat. Had lunch with clients yesterday here in Newport, RI overlooking the water on a beautiful June afternoon. We’ve been working together now for twenty years. Over that time, the relationship has expanded, through referrals, to six other relationships with their friends and family. If you feel someone you care about would like to talk with … [Read more...]

Here’s Why You Need a 15-Year Retirement Investment Plan

By

All is not lost in a downward moving market, especially as interest rates rise. One way to think about your portfolio is to look at it over a period of, say, 15 years. What’s your 15-year plan? Can you survive another three years like this one? How about the last three years? They weren’t too bad. Thinking over a 15-year period might not be as hard as you think. The last 15 included a real bruising time during the financial crisis (I hope you didn’t sell). Prices go up, and prices go down—dividends and interest rates do too, especially in times like these, and that’s a good thing. Today … [Read more...]

Slow and Steady Wins the Race: Most People Can’t Handle Making Money This Way

By

Remember when interest rates were zero? When stocks were booming? Now with tiny interest rate increases, the NASDAQ is down a third, bitcoin is in ruins, and cryptocurrency accounts are in lockdown. What gives? In a word: Speculation. When the risk-free rate of return is nothing for years and years, and then investors stick their necks out with retirement money into areas where they don’t belong, it’s dangerous. This isn’t to say there won’t be a rebound. In my observation, when investors start losing more than, say, 15%, the sell orders start flying. They can’t handle the losses, and in … [Read more...]

PARIS Survival Guy INTELLIGENCE: The Job Market’s Case of Long Covid

By

I just want to get this bit of intelligence out to you from my recent three-week research trip to Paris. As I wrote to you yesterday, Paris is open for business, but it feels more like a soft open, with staffing shortages being the main reason. In my conversations with locals, they tell me that in France, the government takes care of you when you’re not working. One even explained how Covid gave him the “opportunity” to spend more time with family, and he didn’t miss work one bit. Swell. He’s back to work now, but there are plenty of workers who aren’t and who may never return to their “old” … [Read more...]

Kellogg Cuts Loose with Split Plan

By

Kellogg has announced a plan to split into three businesses. The largest leftover business will be made up of the company's snack business, which produces 80% of the revenues for the company in its current configuration. The company will split off its cereal business and its plant-based-foods unit into separate companies. Annie Gasparro reports for The Wall Street Journal: Kellogg Co. said it plans to break up its business into three companies, seeking to jump-start its larger, faster-growing snacks business while helping its namesake cereal brands regain their footing on supermarket … [Read more...]

MONEY TALKS: Your Survival Guy’s Best Service in Paris

By

OK, Your Survival Guy just got back from a two- and half-week research trip in Paris. The six-hour head start in Paris-time compared to the east coast gave me plenty of time to gather my thoughts over a café crème and croissant. In a word, Paris is busy. But it’s not too crazy yet with the demanding Chinese customer still in lockdown. It feels like a soft open. Staffing shortages are rampant while customer demands are as high as ever, understandably acting like they’ve been locked up for a couple of years. But it’s all relative. Because when you spend nine of your nights on the right bank, … [Read more...]

RECESSION? Dow 25,000, $8 Gas, Rising Interest Rates, Spell Mid-term Crack Up

By

When you spend a lifetime working and saving where hours turn into days, weeks, months, and years; you probably have something to show for it. Days do feel like years in times like these. Time stands still. But not all is lost especially if you’re with me. Imagine my headline as we round the corner into the midterm elections. Who’s to blame for that? Who did that? Look, I’m Your Survival Guy. I’m Your Rich Man Poor Man and a Prudent Man to boot. I know from experience the pain of falling markets is much worse than the comfort of rising ones. That’s why I write to you daily about focusing on … [Read more...]

MELTDOWN: The Long Term Pain of Crypto Losses

By

Many cryptocurrency speculators are just now waking up to the extreme levels of risk they assumed when buying their crypto assets. Prices for cryptocurrencies across the board have fallen dramatically, as can be seen in bitcoin's fall of -51.25% year-to-date, and -66.6% since its peak in November 2021, only eight months ago. Now crypto speculators have to calculate how much it will take to get them back to even. It's not a small amount. Even the volatility of crypto might not be enough to get them there soon. A 70% loss in crypto, which for peak investors is only a hair's breadth … [Read more...]

Will the Fed Stick to Its Course?

By

After decades of low-interest rates, inflation has finally caught up to the Fed. America never should have been in this position. Everyone knew that pulling demand from the future with low rates would eventually catch up to the Fed, but no one seemed to worry about that. The value of the dollar has been regularly falling since America came off the gold standard, and in the 21st Century, it's been continuing that trend. But during the Biden era, the rate of dollar value destruction has accelerated. Now the Fed has a chance to make it right, or at least clean up some of the mess they … [Read more...]

When Markets Fall, All Is Not Lost

By

When most investors are simply scurrying for some peace of mind, that's the time for you to think long-term. What’s your cash situation like? Can you make it through the next few years? Are there areas where you see opportunities? I know some of you with second homes are thinking about cashing in, for example. The next question is, where do you put the proceeds? It’s not a simple answer. I want you to think about how long it took you to save your money. Think about how many hours, days, weeks, months, and years you worked to get to where you are. This is not a trivial exercise. For most, … [Read more...]