The numbers ain’t pretty. Unemployment went from a near-record low to high in a matter of weeks; the T-bill rate, the investor’s North Star, is a fallen one (see below); gold is up, and background checks are still high (about double compared to this time last year).   Elevated risks are everywhere and yet the Nasdaq trades as if there’s “nothing to see here,” as retail investors run ‘em up like .com days. It’s truly breathtaking. In my conversations with you, you’re telling me it’s because of times like these you’re with us. You also tell me, if you’re not a client, how much … [Read more...]

You know I have clients in the gun business. They tell me the last couple of months were record-breakers for their business. Typically booming gun sales are a sign gun control supporters are making another push to ban Americans’ firearms. This time though, it’s a sign that more Americans have jobs and have more money in their pockets to spend on hobbies. The quality of jobs is getting better as well. U6 unemployment, the measure of unemployment that includes temporary and part-time workers, is near all-time lows at 6.9%. If Americans want full-time work, they are having a much easier … [Read more...]

My RAGE Gauge shows Americans feeling good about their lives right now. Risk is still elevated but has been trending in a better direction. One place Americans seem to be worried about is their Second Amendment rights. After calls in the Democrat primary for the outright confiscation of guns, Americans started buying firearms at increased rates for the first time in years. FBI data show that November was the first year-over-year increase in the number of background checks for gun sales in well over two years. Unemployment is at a 50-year low, the stock market has been strong, and America … [Read more...]

My latest RAGE Gauge reading is in, and while perceived risk is down from last month, it’s still not pretty. What caught my attention is the noticeable bump in gold as investors seek safe haven investments. Remember though, while the yellow metal is an important component of a diversified portfolio, its lack of income or dividend payments make it an expensive asset for too much of your retirement money. … [Read more...]

You can thank the Trump economy for this stock market. It’s nothing short of a miracle. That’s why it’s a great time for you to review where you stand with your portfolio. Have you considered taking some of your gains and salting them away in bonds in preparation for tougher times ahead? Don’t forget I want you to “Thrive and Survive” no matter what comes our way. … [Read more...]

If you didn’t lose your patience and held your bonds over the last year, then you know it was a perfect example for why you own them. Case in point, Vanguard GNMA ended the last 52-weeks up 4.46% and its recent 30-day SEC yield was 3.06%. The catalyst for much of the recent gains? The midterms and the Fed—socialists storming the castle, and pathetically lower rates. Whether you own treasuries, agencies and/or corporates, avoid the temptations of predictions or your gut. Because you just might end up being wrong. My April Rage Gauge has backed-off from last month, making it a perfect time to … [Read more...]

My March Rage Gauge is in, and it feels like the calm before the storm. Does that mean the market will have a huge downward correction this year? Like I’ve written to you in the past, I’m not in the prediction business. Because for you to be a great investor, you need to put together multiple seasons of investing and then maybe you’ll be able to look back and say: “Well, I wouldn’t want to do that again, but we made it.” Let me explain. All of us have a pretty good feel for what’s going on today. Interest rates aren’t moving, the Trump economy is OK (It could be great again if the … [Read more...]

When the S&P 500 lost 9 percent in December it marked the worst December since the Great Depression year of 1931 when the index was down 14.5%. For all of 2018, the S&P 500 lost 6.2% compared to a loss of 47% in 1931. Now let’s not forget what the carnage looked like from the beginning of the Great Depression, signaled by the crash of Oct. 29, 1929, to its end in June 1932. The S&P 500 dropped 86 percent in less than three years, and did not regain its previous peak until 1954. America has already had two nasty peak to troughs this century, with the tech and banking busts of … [Read more...]

Don’t look now but Vanguard GNMA is up close to 2% over the last four weeks and is even on the year. Remember, half the time you’re going to hate GNMA and half the time you’re going to love it. As the market has struggled, GNMA has performed well. The stock market has been volatile, and my RAGE Gauge is signalling increased risk in America. With an investment like GNMA, which has had no big down years in the last 15, you may be able to create some counterbalancing in your portfolio. This month I am increasing the RAGE Gauge from 80 to 100 to reflect the increased risk in the economy. Now … [Read more...]