OK, a major Wall Street firm came out recently and predicted a fifteen percent correction in the market. What should you do? Well, as Your Survival Guy, I continue to stick with my investing plan regardless of what Wall Street predicts. As you know, predictions are cheap. Why? Because more often than not, these predictions are reversed when their crystal balls turn out to be not so crystal clear. So what’s the point? The point of the predictions is to instill fear. Nothing gets the phone ringing like the prediction of a market correction, especially one of this magnitude. Ring, ring, ring … [Read more...]

OK, my September Rage Gauge is in, and it’s not pretty. Risk perception continues to be at an all-time high. I get it. And as an investor, you can’t afford to keep your head in the sand. This may be a perfect time to make some adjustments to an often overlooked area of your portfolio. I’m talking about your CASH. As I wrote to you yesterday, I think about cash in three ways: You have your emergency stash on hand that you hope to never use. You have cash in your investment portfolio as part of your strategy. To buy stocks when others are selling, for example. You have a pile that’s … [Read more...]

Your Survival Guy’s August Rage Gauge™ is in, and it seems to me like the calm before the storm. That’s why my reading remains full tilt to more risk. It’s a mixed bag as background checks are down, gold is way off, stock yields are lower, as is the unemployment rate. But when you look around and see what’s going on in your neck of the woods, you’re telling me a different story. Things still don’t feel the same, and maybe they never will you say. We’ll see. Anecdotal for sure, but a recent visit to a local restaurant was telling in that, it wasn’t fully staffed, wasn’t fully occupied, … [Read more...]

My latest RAGE Gauge™ is in, and let’s just get something straight right off the bat—a good economy does not mean a good stock market. Sure, stock prices are up thanks to government stimulus checks funding Robinhood and other brokerages’ accounts. But higher prices don’t create anything other than higher valuations. At the end of the day, increasing the “P” in Price/Earnings doesn’t do squat for earnings. The S&P 500 is at its lowest yield in 15-years and the Fed Funds rate is almost zero and is less than zero after inflation. Stocks can go up for as long as there continues to be … [Read more...]

My April RAGE Gauge is in, and RISK remains HIGH. Therefore, I want you to be a mindful and cautious investor, especially with your “safe” money. Your anchor-to-windward savings need to be safe. I’m talking specifically about bonds. Bonds are not dead, far from it. They’re alive and well, especially if you have access to new and secondary market issues. And not just letting the chips fall as they may. Remember, bond prices swing in the opposite direction of interest rates. Their sensitivity to interest rate swings is measured by duration. As a rule of thumb, duration (measured in years) … [Read more...]