My overall trend reading was down from July. Investors are feeling a little too comfortable in this stock market. Yes, the economy looks good, but this bull market is long in the tooth. Now would be an excellent time to look for defensive stocks for your portfolio. “Valuation concerns have already crept into the market, some investors said, as defensive stocks that tend to post lower growth than companies like Amazon and Facebook have outperformed,” reports the WSJ. “The top five performing S&P 500 sectors the past three months are all defensive, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a … [Read more...]
RAGE Gauge July: America the Satisfied?
Over the last month, Americans’ perception of risk hasn’t changed much. One factor of their perceived risk is at a very low level though, their dissatisfaction with their country. For over a decade now Gallup’s poll of American dissatisfaction with the country has been 61% or higher. Not since August of 2005 have only 60% of Americans been dissatisfied. That changed with this month’s survey results. For the first time in 13 years, dissatisfaction dropped down to 60%. Satisfaction is also the highest it has been since 2005, at 38%. Not since September of 2005 have Americans been so … [Read more...]
RAGE Gauge June: The Trump Economy
We can thank President Trump for unleashing the animal spirits that have been key to this economic resurgence: Business Owners of America Unite! And we may be seeing just the beginning of the economic growth to come. But, from an investment standpoint, especially for those in or near retirement, it continues to be a sticky situation. Do you put more money into a bull market that is long in the tooth only to have it ripped in two with a nasty correction? Or, do you take the high road and suffer along with two percent rates, gritting your teeth, as your nephew talks about cryptos? Continue … [Read more...]
RAGE Gauge: Sell in May?
Sell in May? Not if you have a plan you don’t. Successful investing requires that you have a plan and the patience to stick to it. Being paid to be in the market through dividends from stocks, and interest from bonds, makes the waiting all the more palatable. Risk continues to be high. Stocks continue to feel like a popularity contest, especially the FAANGs. We know how that story ends. … [Read more...]
April 2018 RAGE Gauge Report
When you’re in the gun business is there a better salesman than former Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens? With Stevens talking about repealing the Second Amendment, it’s no surprise background checks, a precursor to gun sales are, are up. The risk trend in my RAGE Gauge analysis is up too across the board, except for one metric, unemployment. Thank you, Mr. Trump. Continue to invest with caution. By the way, did you see the unemployment rate numbers for Elkhart-Goshen, Indiana? It was 16.7% in October 2009 and is around 2.7% today. The RV business is humming. … [Read more...]
RAGE Gauge: March Full of Risk
Perhaps the second best gun salesman behind Obama is former Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens. While Mr. Stevens is calling for the repeal of the Second Amendment, real Americans are trying to figure out how to protect their family and their constitutional rights. Don’t delay in making sure your family and your portfolio are secure. My March Rage Gauge indicator continues to signal that risk is a four letter word that many are failing to pay attention to. … [Read more...]
Dow Swings 2,000 Points: My February RAGE Gauge
Make sure you have your investment plan in place sooner than later. There may be some rough waters to navigate. Inflation numbers out today could foretell some tough times as the Fed may be forced to respond. When a record share of small businesses say now is an opportunity to expand operations I pay attention. Bloomberg reports: Six of the 10 components that make up the small-business optimism index increased in January, producing one of the strongest readings in the 45-year history of the survey. The figures show sustained, sturdy business sentiment since the November 2016 election. A … [Read more...]
RAGE Gauge: January Euphoria
Investors are in what Bloomberg writer Adam Haigh calls a euphoria today. According to my RAGE Gauge, Americans are still not factoring in much, if any, risk. While the economy is strong and the stock market is up, it's always a good idea to be wary when others are not. When you hear words like euphoria being used to describe investor mentality, it pays to be skeptical. Haigh writes: Euphoria on Wall Street that stocks can just keep on building on record highs is getting so stratospheric that it’s reaching levels that previously signaled a slump. Analysts are ratcheting up their forecasts … [Read more...]
You’ve Read the Last Issue of Intelligence Report: MTI and RAGE Gauge
In case you missed it, here’s what Dick Young wrote in his December 2016 issue of Intelligence Report: My Revitalized Market Tension Index (MTI) When will we know that the economy has entered recession? This month, I am reintroducing my Market Tension Index (MTI) to help you and I determine whether the economy is in recession. This will be the first of what are likely to be many more proprietary indicators and tools I plan to roll out to help you become a more comfortable, confident, informed investor. My revitalized MTI is a composite index of indicators that have historically peaked … [Read more...]
November RAGE Gauge Tells Me Investors are Too Comfortable
My goal for you with my monthly RAGE Gauge is to provide you with a quick reading of how risk is being perceived right now—how risk is being interpreted. In my line of work, there is never enough attention given to downside protection—keeping what you have—too much energy is wasted thinking about keeping up with the other guy. In that world, the grass is always greener because of: How much “they” have, where their kids go to school, what they do for a living, and where they live. “They,” take up an enormous amount of energy. A more efficient use of energy focuses on what you do to … [Read more...]