Jack be nimble, Jack be quick. Jack jumped over the…you know how it goes. As investors stomp their feet because stocks are going down (the horror), let’s not forget what’s happening to bonds. Anyone who reached for yield on the 30-year Treasury is learning about duration—basically, for every one percent increase in rates, bond prices drop, in percentage terms, by the years of maturity. In other words, if rates go up, long-term bonds get killed by a factor many times worse than short-term bonds. It’s pretty easy to hold short-term bonds to maturity, in times like these, and handle the … [Read more...]
Petrified Snow/Ice Fishing? How about a Boat? and More
One of the greatest things about winter is you can dream about summer. After a few days of warm(er) temps here in New England, we’re seeing some of the snow melt. Quite a bit, actually, has already melted in Newport, RI, except for those stubborn piles of petrified snow—not very pretty. I’m not sure it can be called snow. It’s more like groups of fossils. In speaking with you, most of you are between rounds one and two of the vaccine, not getting it at all, or already done with two rounds—and you’re all itchin’ to get out. It’s a common theme where you’re looking to move freely about your … [Read more...]
COVID Chaos: New York and California vs. Florida and South Dakota
Recently at YourSurvivalGuy.com, you read about the Butterfly Effect— that’s “the notion that a butterfly stirring the air today in Peking can transform storm systems next month in New York,” explained by James Gleick in Chaos. In other words, the weather is like a domino effect. But what about non-weather events? Like a dead animal in China. Look at the COVID storm we’re in today. What’s even more disastrous is how government officials in certain blue states (Cuomo in NY and Newsom in CA) have created chaos. You just can’t make it up, especially when compared to Gov/s Kristi Noem, SD, and … [Read more...]
Richard Young Reports: 50+ Years with Fidelity and Wellington
I started in the institutional research and trading investment business at Model Roland & Co. on Federal St. in Boston in August 1971. Just up the street from Model were Fidelity Investments, and Wellington Management, both of whom I called on from my very first hours on the job. Over five decades ago, Ned Johnson, aka “Mister Johnson,” ran the show at Fidelity. At Wellington, Jack Bogle, “Mr. Mutual Fund,” had not yet left Wellington to start Vanguard. My focus in the initial going was international research and trading, and remains so today all these decades later. I still consider … [Read more...]
Deep Survival, Who Lives, Who Dies, and Why
In Deep Survival, Who Lives, Who Dies, and Why, author Laurence Gonzales explains, “The events that we call ‘accidents’ do not just happen. There is not some vector of pain that causes them. People have to assemble the systems that make them happen. Even then, nothing may happen for a long time.” In 1960, when MIT meteorologist Edward Lorenz was modeling weather systems, he discovered a tiny change in the initial state (1 part in 1,000), explains Gonzales, was enough to produce totally different weather patterns. It became known as the Butterfly Effect, “the notion that a butterfly stirring … [Read more...]
Your Retirement Life: Meet Larry the Car Wash Guy
This is one of my favorite stories about a guy following his passion and making a career out of it. If you haven’t checked out his videos on how to wash a car, then you’re in for a treat. Enjoy! CNBC tells the story of Larry Kosilla, a Wall Street trader who decided to give up the fast lane to instead pursue his dream of being around expensive cars all the time. Marguerite Ward reports: “You can’t fake enthusiasm,” Kosilla tells CNBC. “There’s not enough money in the world to fake enthusiasm.” He created a website Ammo NYC to sell detailing products online in 2011. From there, he … [Read more...]
You’re Worried About Money, Not Just Losing It
I had a conversation with a prospective client yesterday telling me he wants preservation of principal with growth. And on top of that, he told me what stocks he wanted to own. (You know the names, I won’t bore you.) “Because I don’t like to lose money,” he said. In my over 25-years working in the investment business, I have yet to meet someone who “likes” losing money. It’s not a “well he can afford to lose some money” thing either. Losing money is losing money. No one likes to be a loser. Period. On a separate note, I had a real nice conversation with another prospective client earlier … [Read more...]
America’s Growth Corridors as Written in 2013 by Joel Kotkin
In 2013, in contrast to the majority of the establishment media, Joel Kotkin wrote that America's future economic growth would be driven by what he called "four growth corridors," including "the Great Plains, the Intermountain West, the Third Coast (spanning the Gulf states from Texas to Florida), and the Southeastern industrial belt." Kotkin told readers of The Wall Street Journal that these growth corridors tended to be "generally less dense, more affordable, and markedly more conservative and pro-business." He continued: Overall, these corridors account for 45% of the nation's land … [Read more...]
You’re Witnessing Reckless Spending and the Destruction Of…
You’re living in a crazy world where a lot of the frustration you and I feel is absolutely avoidable. Where’s leadership’s common sense? They’re making calls that impact your life in a way that seems separate from theirs. Why, for example, is the nation’s Capitol building surrounded by a moat-like steel fence and armored guards? From whom are they protecting themselves? You’re witnessing reckless spending and the destruction of the dollar. Is there any wonder today’s headlines read like an inflationary who’s who? “Lumber Prices Notch Records on Remodeling Boom, Stock Futures Gain, Natural Gas … [Read more...]
Fidelity #1: GameStop and NEVER Selling You Out
As you know, Robinhood offers online traders an easy way to invest in stocks like GameStop. But did you know it makes it’s money from PFOP or payment for order flow? What PFOP means is that Robinhood sells its own customer trading data to outsiders—those more than willing to pay for it. Why you might ask? Follow the money. A hedge fund might want to know what the order flow looks like on a specific stock and bet for or against it. It’s like sitting at the poker table and they see everyone’s hand. It’s basically a legal way (I guess) to show them the money. Don’t let that be you. It’s … [Read more...]