You have been reading warnings about the S&P 500 and the truth behind it here on Your Survival Guy for years. Now, everyone else is catching up. The big firms making up a disproportionately large part of the index’s value are suffering declines and bringing the index with them. Matt Murray writes in The Wall Street Journal’s 10 Point email: The 2022 pullback in U.S. stocks is changing investors’ behavior, with more volatility expected. The breadth of the market’s selloff has been striking, dragging valuations lower and tempering enthusiasm for risky bets in the options market. Shares … [Read more...]
The Truth About S&P 500 Index Funds Is Revealed
Investors who loaded up on S&P 500 index funds are beginning to understand the truth behind the S&P 500. Big component companies like Disney, Netflix, Salesforce.com, and Twitter are fueling a sell off. That's not to mention Apple, where a sell off has erased over 6% since the beginning of the year, when Apple was worth as much as McDonald’s, Walmart, AT&T, Philip Morris, Berkshire Hathaway, Proctor & Gamble, JP Morgan Chase, Starbucks, Boeing, Deere, and American Express combined. The number of securities at 52-week lows each day is higher than normal. That's a bad … [Read more...]
Stocks: S&P 500 Hit 25 Records this Year
You may have noticed the food and beverage industry needs workers. Like, right now. You can expand that out to most businesses in the service industry. Your Survival Guy will place the blame on big government unemployment checks and on the lockdowns freaking people out. Case in point, we escaped to the city this weekend to meet friends, and when the sun went down, it turned into a ghost town. No taxis, no Uber, which is basically operating with on-and-off strikes. Why? Because the governor isn’t allowing them to charge higher prices when demand surges. According to him, the city’s still in a … [Read more...]
When Stocks Drop by 33.9%, 49.1%, or Even 56.8%
There’s a time when you’re most vulnerable as an investor. It’s not when you’re knee-deep in work, with retirement waaay off in the distance. It’s when, as you dream about retirement, you look at your statement and do some mental math: when can I retire? You realize, hmmm, I’ve got some money, but I need “X” dollars to retire. I need to make “X” percent on my portfolio to get there. Now, with this dream in mind and a portfolio full of stocks, your palms get a little sweaty when the market drops by 800 points or so. You’re paying a little closer attention to the down days. Maybe a little too … [Read more...]
Why Vanguard is Too Big: Part X: A Lesson from My Father About Paying Too Much
Your Survival Guy learned how to be a successful real estate investor from my dad. He taught me that price always matters, but he also understood the magic of time. If you need to pay a higher price to be in the game, you get in the game, especially when you’re young. When Becky and I were buying our first home, my dad couldn’t believe how much we were paying. But he also realized that when you’re young, you have a better chance of surviving if you happen to pay too much. You have time on your side—and a job—and nothing focuses the mind like a mortgage. But what if you don’t have time? Price … [Read more...]
New Update! Why Vanguard is Too Big: Part IX: It’s NOT Different this Time
Your Survival Guy’s boiler room is stacked with buckets of 30-day survival food sprinkled with Spam and other canned delicacies. My son tells me he can’t wait to try some of it. Other members of my family tell me they’d rather starve. Your Survival Guy also has a weakness in the canned goods aisle. Cans of BOGO tuna and sardines magically jump into my cart like fish out of water. “We’re good on the canned fish,” I’m told. Who knew the term “value” could be so subjective. Last month investors believed Apple was worth eight percent of the market. (They’ve since re-thought that). As I’ve … [Read more...]
Why Vanguard is too Big: Part VIII: You Can’t Know What You Don’t Know
Let’s clear something up real quick. If you’re invested with Vanguard and it’s a major undertaking to shift your portfolio to Fidelity Investments—there are worse places to be stuck. In an industry littered with terrible, high-cost products, you’re lucky to be at low cost, no front or back-end load Vanguard. But what you might own at Vanguard and seeing how its assets continue to expand is concerning. As an aside, Vanguard has had some great managers retire such as the GNMA fund’s Michael Garret, from sub-advisor Wellington Management. You never hear about his retirement party. It makes it … [Read more...]
Why Vanguard is too Big: Part VII: What Do You Have to Lose? A LOT
You wouldn’t believe the conversation I had yesterday with a prospective client. It’s as if he’s done everything we’ve recommended over the years and we were set to talk yesterday—after all of those years later—to see how it all turned out. I’m here to tell you, quite well, indeed. This gentleman is wealthy beyond his imagination and I bet, having not met him face to face yet, I wouldn’t be able to pick him out of a lineup. That’s the beauty of quiet wealth: You control how you move about the world with no pressure to live up to some silly image. Long ago, my new friend and his wife … [Read more...]
Why Vanguard is too Big: Part VI
Do you know what career risk means? Of course, you do. It means you could lose your job. Well, in the investment world of pensions, mutual funds, and ETFs, career risk means you might lose your job if you underperform an index. That’s why so many pensions, foundations, and the like are piling into the Jabba the Hutt funds, like Vanguard’s Total Stock Market Index. If they lose a pile of money, at least they can say, “Hey, so did everyone else. We performed just like the market did”. You’ve read here, here, here, here, and here about my concerns with Vanguard being too big. That goes for all … [Read more...]
Why Vanguard is too Big: Part V: How You’re Being Forgotten
I’m not trying to be unfair to Vanguard, or other companies with airplane-hangar-sized call centers, but nowadays you tend to feel like a number. You feel like what’s more important to the big guys is telling you how many assets they have under management. It’s in the trillions. How does that help you? It doesn’t. It also doesn’t help when the phone rep you’re speaking with is either fresh out of college or is worth a fraction of what you’ve been able to save over a lifetime of work. There tends to be some value in working with someone who has actually made some money, don’t you think? It … [Read more...]