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Welcome to the Interest Rate Prediction Business, JACK!

February 26, 2021 By E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy

Jack be nimble, Jack be quick. Jack jumped over the…you know how it goes. As investors stomp their feet because stocks are going down (the horror), let’s not forget what’s happening to bonds. Anyone who reached for yield on the 30-year Treasury is learning about duration—basically, for every one percent increase in rates, bond prices drop, in percentage terms, by the years of maturity. In other words, if rates go up, long-term bonds get killed by a factor many times worse than short-term bonds. It’s pretty easy to hold short-term bonds to maturity, in times like these, and handle the … [Read more...]

Richard Young Reports: 50+ Years with Fidelity and Wellington

February 23, 2021 By Richard Young

I started in the institutional research and trading investment business at Model Roland & Co. on Federal St. in Boston in August 1971. Just up the street from Model were Fidelity Investments, and Wellington Management, both of whom I called on from my very first hours on the job. Over five decades ago, Ned Johnson, aka “Mister Johnson,” ran the show at Fidelity. At Wellington, Jack Bogle, “Mr. Mutual Fund,” had not yet left Wellington to start Vanguard. My focus in the initial going was international research and trading, and remains so today all these decades later. I still consider … [Read more...]

Deep Survival, Who Lives, Who Dies, and Why

February 22, 2021 By E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy

In Deep Survival, Who Lives, Who Dies, and Why, author Laurence Gonzales explains, “The events that we call ‘accidents’ do not just happen. There is not some vector of pain that causes them. People have to assemble the systems that make them happen. Even then, nothing may happen for a long time.” In 1960, when MIT meteorologist Edward Lorenz was modeling weather systems, he discovered a tiny change in the initial state (1 part in 1,000), explains Gonzales, was enough to produce totally different weather patterns. It became known as the Butterfly Effect, “the notion that a butterfly stirring … [Read more...]

You’re Worried About Money, Not Just Losing It

February 18, 2021 By E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy

I had a conversation with a prospective client yesterday telling me he wants preservation of principal with growth. And on top of that, he told me what stocks he wanted to own. (You know the names, I won’t bore you.) “Because I don’t like to lose money,” he said. In my over 25-years working in the investment business, I have yet to meet someone who “likes” losing money. It’s not a “well he can afford to lose some money” thing either. Losing money is losing money. No one likes to be a loser. Period. On a separate note, I had a real nice conversation with another prospective client earlier … [Read more...]

You’re Witnessing Reckless Spending and the Destruction Of…

February 16, 2021 By E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy

You’re living in a crazy world where a lot of the frustration you and I feel is absolutely avoidable. Where’s leadership’s common sense? They’re making calls that impact your life in a way that seems separate from theirs. Why, for example, is the nation’s Capitol building surrounded by a moat-like steel fence and armored guards? From whom are they protecting themselves? You’re witnessing reckless spending and the destruction of the dollar. Is there any wonder today’s headlines read like an inflationary who’s who? “Lumber Prices Notch Records on Remodeling Boom, Stock Futures Gain, Natural Gas … [Read more...]

A Tax Saving, Money Making, Idea for Your Grandchildren

February 8, 2021 By E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy

You know that getting saving for your grandchild is the best thing you can do as a grandparent. You've read my recommendations on Roth IRAs and UGMAs for your grandkids. Christmas is a great time to save for your grandkids, but any time will do when you're funding a tax-free savings plan for your grandchild. In Kiplinger, Mary Kane lays out the basics of seeding a Roth IRA for a grandchild, writing (abridged): Contributions to Roth IRAs give grandchildren "a huge head start," says Jennifer Failla, a certified financial planner with Strada Wealth Management, in Austin, Tex. Grandchildren … [Read more...]

When Your Survival Guy Joined the Family Business

February 5, 2021 By E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy

Happy Friday, it’s almost five o’clock. Hang in there. This week we have a lot to talk about, but first, I have to say time flies. With my daughter in college and a son almost there, I feel a little older. A client friend told me about a conversation he had on a milestone birthday. “Dad, I can’t believe I’m 65,” he said. “How do you think I feel?” His dad responded, “I have a son on social security.” Aren’t we always in our mid-thirties mentally? Time flies. (If you want it to slow down, try not drinking for a month, go on a diet, or go jogging.) When I was fresh out of Babson … [Read more...]

GameStop Helps Explain Robinhood’s Free Stock Trades

February 4, 2021 By E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy

As I explained to you yesterday in Money 101: There’s a Reason Family Always Comes 1st, when something is free, you’re probably the product being sold. Sold to whom? Well, in the case of GameStop, for example, Robinhood sold high-speed traders customer order flow as reported in the WSJ back in December: Robinhood Financial LLC has agreed to pay $65 million to settle regulatory claims that it didn’t sufficiently disclose its business deals with high-speed trading firms, the Securities and Exchange Commission said Thursday. The fine is a setback for the fast-growing company, which has helped … [Read more...]

Money 101: There’s a Reason Family Always Comes 1st

February 3, 2021 By E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy

Are you aligned with a money gathering business, or are you aligned with a money manager? The money-gathering business is all about bigness. They tell you all about how big they are when all you care about is, “how are you going to help me?” Welcome to the world where being big—whether it’s big tech or big money—makes you just a cog in the wheel. Where, for example, you sign up for Facebook or use Google for “free” and come to realize, “anything that’s free means I’m the product.” They’re selling you out. It’s no different from when money guys look to upsell you down the river. Look at the … [Read more...]

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