Your Survival Guy

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Prepared for When the Next Black Swan Swoops In?

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UPDATE 9.19.23: Have you thought about preparing for a Black Swan event since you read this piece I posted on August 3? Since then, the world has only gotten riskier. As readers of my monthly RAGE Gauge (sign up for my monthly alert here) know, risk is high. Africa has been threatening to break out into a multinational war, now Armenia and Azerbaijan are near to fighting, and nothing seems resolved in Ukraine. Wars aren’t the only Black Swan events, but they certainly increase risk in the world. If you aren’t preparing already, now is a great time to start.

In my conversations with you, we talk about the markets. We talk about prices. We talk about how your portfolio is aligned. We talk about when the next Black Swan will swoop in because it always does—just never on anyone’s schedule.

As Your Survival Guy, my goal is to craft investment plans that may handle the hardest of times. Investors know about the Great Depression and other horrible markets, but they don’t always invest as if they do. There’s often an “it won’t happen to me” or “you only live once” attitude. I’m here to say it can happen, and one should prepare as if it will.

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The very nature of owning a diversified, balanced portfolio is that a portion of your money will be in areas that are different. It means, for example, that in tough times bonds, being higher up in the capital structure compared to common equity, should offer more comfort. And even if their prices move in synch, the counterintuitive nature of buying at lower prices is easier to do when you’re reinvesting dividends or buying more bonds with cash.

When investors cheer, I jeer. I know big-time losses are life-changing events. They may not happen regularly. They often aren’t foreseen. They just happen. My goal is to be ready for when they do. To be comfortable no matter what’s going on in the world. As a fiduciary, I’ve lived through plenty of volatility already this century and know how hard it is.

Action Line: Stick with me. When you’re ready to talk, let me know.

Originally posted August 3, 2023.

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E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy

E.J. Smith is Founder of YourSurvivalGuy.com, Managing Director at Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd., a Managing Editor of Richardcyoung.com, and Editor-in-Chief of Youngresearch.com. His focus at all times is on preparing clients and readers for “Times Like These.” E.J. graduated from Babson College in Wellesley, Massachusetts, with a B.S. in finance and investments. In 1995, E.J. began his investment career at Fidelity Investments in Boston before joining Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd. in 1998. E.J. has trained at Sig Sauer Academy in Epping, NH. His first drum set was a 5-piece Slingerland with Zildjians. He grew-up worshiping Neil Peart (RIP) of the band Rush, and loves the song Tom Sawyer—the name of his family’s boat, a Grady-White Canyon 306. He grew up in Mattapoisett, MA, an idyllic small town on the water near Cape Cod. He spends time in Newport, RI and Bartlett, NH—both as far away from Wall Street as one could mentally get. The Newport office is on a quiet, tree lined street not far from the harbor and the log cabin in Bartlett, NH, the “Live Free or Die” state, sits on the edge of the White Mountain National Forest. He enjoys spending time in Key West (RIP JB) and Paris. Please get in touch with E.J. at ejsmith@yoursurvivalguy.com To sign up for my free monthly Survive & Thrive letter, click here.

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