Non-farm employers added 156,000 jobs in September as the unemployment rate edged up 0.1% to 5%. The participation rate rose slightly to 62.9%, while 94,184,000 Americans were not in the labor force, 207,000 fewer than in August. Interest rates plunged in September after the Fed, as we expected, did nothing with rates, and are back up now. Not much good to report on “dissatisfaction with the country.” Gold is well below $1,300 at $1,254. If it was a good value last month, it’s a better one today. Background checks broke another monthly record in September as concerns mount about the future of … [Read more...]
RAGE Gauge for September
The RAGE Gauge for September continues to signal High Risk. The most significant contributor to this month’s reading was the all-time record of handgun background checks for the month of August at 611,575. Gold pulled back over the last 30-days, but is still holding strong at the $1,300/troy oz. support level while the yield on the 3-month T-Bill ticked higher. Both are an indication the market is taking Federal Reserve threats of rate increases more serious. I don’t expect the Fed to rock the boat much prior to the election. … [Read more...]
RAGE Gauge: Americans Unhappy
Throughout July, Americans signaled that they're feeling more risk. Gold prices pushed higher, people bought more guns, and most frighteningly, dissatisfaction with the country jumped from 69% to 82%. It's obvious the current political campaign is having an effect on people's moods, and rightly so. No matter who you're voting for, no one can deny this has been one of the most divisive, scandal filled, and partisan elections in memory. The RAGE Gauge remains at High Risk. But politics isn't the only thing creating risk. Deutsche Bank reported recently that the U.S. has a 60% chance of entering … [Read more...]
Rage Gauge: 64 People Shot in Chicago
64 people were shot in Chicago over the Fourth of July weekend. Where’s the outrage? “Through June, there had already been 315 homicides in Chicago this year, which is a 49% increase over the first half of last year,” writes Jason Riley in the WSJ, author of Please Stop Helping Us: How Liberals Make it Harder for Blacks to Succeed. “The political left’s response to gun violence is typically more gun control, even though the places with the biggest problems tend to sport harsher firearms restrictions, and criminals by definition ignore laws.” The article concludes that there is no link to … [Read more...]
The First RAGE Gauge Reading Signals High Risk
For June 2016, my RAGE Gauge signals: High Risk Tension is high on the social and economic fronts. FBI Background checks continue to trend higher, dissatisfaction with the direction of the country is trending high, and the underemployment rate (U6) isn’t real encouraging in this sluggish economy. But it’s a sluggish economy with inflation. You need only look at your checkbook and credit card bills, not the government’s worthless CPI, to find it: Education, Condo’s in Boston/NYC/Miami, food (the type you buy) and taxes to name a few are sky-high. Gold is up 20% YTD. Your dollars are getting … [Read more...]
RAGE Gauge: Can’t Get No Satisfaction!
Another component of my RAGE Gauge is Americans' dissatisfaction with the direction of the country as measured by Gallup's poll of "Satisfaction With the United States." The poll asks responders the simple question "In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?" This is a great gauge of Americans' overall contentedness, and elevated dissatisfaction could be a sign of pending social unrest or other dislocations in the economy as a whole. Today Americans are dissatisfied at rates higher than the fifteen year average. This indicates … [Read more...]
RAGE Gauge: Can't Get No Satisfaction!
Another component of my RAGE Gauge is Americans' dissatisfaction with the direction of the country as measured by Gallup's poll of "Satisfaction With the United States." The poll asks responders the simple question "In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?" This is a great gauge of Americans' overall contentedness, and elevated dissatisfaction could be a sign of pending social unrest or other dislocations in the economy as a whole. Today Americans are dissatisfied at rates higher than the fifteen year average. This indicates … [Read more...]
RAGE Gauge: The Real Unemployment Rate
The typical headline unemployment numbers the American news media reports (U3) are inadequate for measuring not just unemployment, but underemployment. Many part time employees would prefer full time employment. The U6 unemployment number you see above includes more of the employees left out by the headline number; those who are marginally attached to the workforce, and those who are employed part time for economic reasons. The effect of the expanded definition is a fuller understanding of how many Americans aren't working as much as they would like to. The U6 rate is an important component … [Read more...]
LinkedIn for $26.2 Billion. Who says there’s no Inflation?
Here’s yet another example that inflation exists in several pockets of the economy thanks to the reckless monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. From today’s WSJ: The stock gains of the Obama era are partly a reflection of the resilience of American business in a tough environment, but they may also result in part from the Federal Reserve’s monetary exertions. Perhaps Mr. Hoffman decided this is the time to sell near the top. It’s clear how government policies are shaping the financing of the LinkedIn deal. As of March 31, Microsoft’s balance sheet held more than $105 billion in cash, cash … [Read more...]
RAGE Gauge: Your Survival Cash and the Gold Rush
You and I both know there’s inflation today. It’s at the grocery store, education, real estate, taxes etc. As long as there is government controlling your money, there will be inflation. As I write here, cash may be king in a sudden disaster, but should be paired with a hard asset hedge for long term protection: Cash is king! Try selling that one to your spouse. But cash is pretty powerful. You never know when you’ll need it. Like when there’s a Wi-Fi outage that shuts-down businesses. No Wi-Fi, no credit cards. No Pizza. Cash is powerful to an empty stomach. But predicting an outage is as … [Read more...]
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