Your Survival Guy

Preparing your investments and family for when disaster strikes.

Disclosure

RAGE Gauge: Can't Get No Satisfaction!

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Another component of my RAGE Gauge is Americans' dissatisfaction with the direction of the country as measured by Gallup's poll of "Satisfaction With the United States." The poll asks responders the simple question "In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?" This is a great gauge of Americans' overall contentedness, and elevated dissatisfaction could be a sign of pending social unrest or other dislocations in the economy as a whole. Today Americans are dissatisfied at rates higher than the fifteen year average. This indicates … [Read more...]

RAGE Gauge: The Real Unemployment Rate

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The typical headline unemployment numbers the American news media reports (U3) are inadequate for measuring not just unemployment, but underemployment. Many part time employees would prefer full time employment. The U6 unemployment number you see above includes more of the employees left out by the headline number; those who are marginally attached to the workforce, and those who are employed part time for economic reasons. The effect of the expanded definition is a fuller understanding of how many Americans aren't working as much as they would like to. The U6 rate is an important component … [Read more...]

LinkedIn for $26.2 Billion. Who says there’s no Inflation?

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Here’s yet another example that inflation exists in several pockets of the economy thanks to the reckless monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. From today’s WSJ: The stock gains of the Obama era are partly a reflection of the resilience of American business in a tough environment, but they may also result in part from the Federal Reserve’s monetary exertions. Perhaps Mr. Hoffman decided this is the time to sell near the top. It’s clear how government policies are shaping the financing of the LinkedIn deal. As of March 31, Microsoft’s balance sheet held more than $105 billion in cash, cash … [Read more...]

RAGE Gauge: Your Survival Cash and the Gold Rush

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You and I both know there’s inflation today. It’s at the grocery store, education, real estate, taxes etc. As long as there is government controlling your money, there will be inflation. As I write here, cash may be king in a sudden disaster, but should be paired with a hard asset hedge for long term protection: Cash is king! Try selling that one to your spouse. But cash is pretty powerful. You never know when you’ll need it. Like when there’s a Wi-Fi outage that shuts-down businesses. No Wi-Fi, no credit cards. No Pizza. Cash is powerful to an empty stomach. But predicting an outage is as … [Read more...]

Hooked on a Feeling: It’s What Separates the Best from the Rest

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Do you want to know what investing is to me? It’s a feeling. To have a feeling for the market, like sailing a boat, is to separate the good investors from the greats. Why is it important to get a feel for the market? Because the knowledge we seek is not always available in reports, and often it’s distorted by reporting bias. It’s why I personally favor anecdotal evidence for the truth about the markets. For example, nothing in the world can replace conversations I have with my clients or emails from you. They give me on-the-ground intelligence I never, ever find in daily stock quotes. Let … [Read more...]

My Favorite Stock-Market Gauge

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In constructing the RAGE Gauge, I’m using the dividend yield. I will not buy a stock unless it pays a dividend. Plain and simple. Take a look at the dividend yield today compared to any other point in post WWII history and you get an idea for why I chose the name: RAGE Gauge … [Read more...]

Introducing the Risk Analysis & Grouping Estimator or RAGE Gauge

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Wouldn’t it be incredibly helpful to you and your family if you could swipe your iPhone and instantly gauge the pulse of the nation? Risks to the economy? And do it on multiple levels? At your fingertips would be an intelligent way to take the temperature, if you will, of the country. I wanted such a tool and I thought you would too. And I wanted it to be about stuff I’m interested in and not some irrelevant government statistic. Allow me to introduce to you the Risk Analysis & Grouping Estimator or RAGE Gauge. Stay tuned over the coming weeks to learn how it’s constructed. … [Read more...]

Introducing the Risk Analysis & Grouping Estimator or RAGE Gauge

By

Wouldn’t it be incredibly helpful to you and your family if you could swipe your iPhone and instantly gauge the pulse of the nation? Risks to the economy? And do it on multiple levels? At your fingertips would be an intelligent way to take the temperature, if you will, of the country. I wanted such a tool and I thought you would too. And I wanted it to be about stuff I’m interested in and not some irrelevant government statistic. Allow me to introduce to you the Risk Analysis & Grouping Estimator or RAGE Gauge. Stay tuned over the coming weeks to learn how it’s constructed. … [Read more...]