“People with ropes around their necks don’t always hang.” That’s a line from the classic 1966 spaghetti western, The Good, the Bad and the Ugly, uttered by Angel Eyes, played by Lee Van Cleef.
While the current economy might not be a rope around the neck, there are some danger signs. But, as Angel Eyes explains, that doesn’t always mean it’s the end. Here’s some of the good, the bad, and the ugly in the U.S. economy:
The Good:
- Atlanta GDPNow Q32025 estimate is for 3.85% growth. Better than most economists predict.
- Jobless claims still very low.
- Mortgage applications are slowly rising, with purchase applications taking some share from refinancings.
- Dr. Copper is booming, though there are some supply-side constraints distorting the price action.
Now the bad, and in this case, the mixed:
- Crude oil prices are the lowest they’ve been since 2021. That could signal an oncoming recession, but also grease the wheels for renewed economic activity.
- TSA checkpoint passenger numbers have dipped below those of the last two years, but it’s hard to tell how much of that is because of the government shutdown.
- ADP payrolls have been soft, but mixed.
- Case-Shiller home prices are flattening out.
And the ugly:
- Consumer sentiment, both the U. of Mich. Survey and Conference Board’s Confidence Index, don’t look good. U. of Mich is plumbing the depths near all time lows. Consumer Confidence is near its lowest levels in a decade.
- U.S. dollar continues to slip as a percentage of world currency reserves.
- Dollar continues to slip vs. yuan, meaning the cost of anything coming from China is rising.
- Condo sales prices in the South and West are ailing. They haven’t had this many consecutive drops in price since the 2010-2011 aftershocks of the housing crisis.
Action Line: Your Survival Guy is not in the predictions business. The economy is dynamic and judging by the different opinions of the many Federal Reserve governors and presidents, even the “experts” are puzzled about its future. But investors should be watching. Click here to subscribe to my free monthly Survive & Thrive letter.
