Dear Survivor, Your Survival Guy’s been watching lumber prices. I reported earlier this year that much of the increase was due to a bottleneck at sawmills. (There’s plenty of trees, just no excess capacity at the mills creating finished lumber.) Lumber futures reached a high of $1,711.20 per thousand board feet in May. Recently, July futures were down to $1,009.90, off 41% from the record high. Ryan Dezember reports in the WSJ: The rapid decline suggests a bubble that has burst and the question is how low lumber prices will fall. Even after tumbling, lumber futures remain nearly three … [Read more...]

Dear Survivor, One of my best business experiences was serving fish and chips and scooping ice cream at Oxford Creamery in Mattapoisett, MA, where I grew up. I remember feeling anxious before each shift, knowing I’d be missing out on some fun with my friends, and knowing how slammed work would be. That was especially true on a Friday night when the fish and chips special (with fresh cod from the boats in New Bedford) was the best around. With the line out the door, I had no time to think about missing out on fun with my friends. Waiting on a group of hungry customers fresh off the … [Read more...]

Dear Survivor, You’re telling me what friends are asking you the most. But first, let’s take a step back. You’ve been through a lot over the last year. Most of you stuck with me as we watched the world turn upside down. We lived to fight another day. Hey, I’m Your Survival Guy, not your "hope we make it" guy; what did you expect? You didn’t think I’d leave you behind, did you? You didn’t panic (maybe a little), you didn’t drop to your knees and raise your hands to the sky in despair (it’s OK, no one saw that), and you stuck to your plan (too scary not too). You made it through in your own … [Read more...]

Dear Survivor, You might be looking for the best place in America to retire. You may enjoy owning firearms, paying low taxes, and being left alone. That's the definition of what I'm calling a "liberty retiree." Recently a liberty retiree, known as U, asked MarketWatch's Catey Hill where would be the best place for them to retire. Hill answered (abridged): To answer your question, I went right to the source: the Libertarian Party itself, where I had a lively chat with Dan Fishman, the party’s executive director, who had a lot of advice for you. He said that, while the Libertarian Party … [Read more...]

Dear Survivor, In 2013, in contrast to the majority of the establishment media, Joel Kotkin wrote that America's future economic growth would be driven by what he called "four growth corridors," including "the Great Plains, the Intermountain West, the Third Coast (spanning the Gulf states from Texas to Florida), and the Southeastern industrial belt." Kotkin told readers of The Wall Street Journal that these growth corridors tended to be "generally less dense, more affordable, and markedly more conservative and pro-business." He continued: Overall, these corridors account for 45% of … [Read more...]

Dear Survivor, “In the 1600s a series of civilization-threatening plague epidemics gave birth to one of the most heavy-handed surveillance states in the Western world,” writes Annie Jacobsen in First Platoon. “In order to impose the rule of law, the government ordered the full-scale cataloging of people.” You felt like you were being watched because you were, especially by your neighbors. Historian Michel Foucault draws the parallel between the surveillance state during the plague, in Discipline and Punish: The Birth of the Prison, and a prison called the Panopticon or “all seeing.” It … [Read more...]

Dear Survivor, Let’s file this one under You Invest They Win shall we? Unprecedented monetary policy intervention by the Fed has done what all unprecedented interventions by the government do, create winners and losers. In this case, the winner is BlackRock. The Fed picked the firm to handle its corporate bond buying program. Of course, BlackRock's share of the corporate bond market grew, and the big got bigger. As one investment professional told the Wall Street Journal “The unprecedented actions taken by the Fed during Covid-19 just accelerated the trend where the biggest products … [Read more...]