The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index has fallen to 84.5, its lowest level since 2014. The Conference Board writes:
“Confidence collapsed in January, as consumer concerns about both the present situation and expectations for the future deepened,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “All five components of the Index deteriorated, driving the overall Index to its lowest level since May 2014 (82.2)—surpassing its COVID-19 pandemic depths.”
The Present Situation Index fell, as net views on current business conditions dwindled to just barely positive, at +0.1%. Perceptions of employment conditions also edged lower, with the labor market differential—the share of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” minus the share saying jobs are “hard to get”—continuing to flag. All three Expectations Index components also weakened in January. Expectations for business and labor market conditions six months from now fell further into negative territory. The outlook for household incomes became less positive.
Among demographic groups, confidence on a six-month moving average basis dipped for all age groups in January, although consumers under 35 continued to be more confident than consumers age 35 and older. Confidence among all generations trended downward in the month, but Gen Z remained the most optimistic of all generations surveyed. By income, confidence on a six-month moving average basis ticked downward for all brackets, and consumers earning less than $15K remained the least optimistic among all income groups. Consumer confidence continued to fade in January among all political affiliations, with the sharpest decline among Independents.
While confidence was down among all political affiliations, the Conference Board’s index records the same differences in trend between political parties as the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index. While consumer confidence for Democrats and Independents hit 70 in January, for Republicans, it was 120. A massive partisan gap.
Action Line: Click here to subscribe to my free monthly Survive & Thrive letter.
