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Is Inflation Improving? It Depends on Who You Ask

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Americans have suffered through three years of Bidenflation, and by all accounts, the rate of inflation is improving. But some people, mostly those affiliated with the current administration, are taking a victory lap based mostly on the PCE price index, while other inflation measurements are still coming in at distressingly high levels. Gwynn Guilford reports for The Wall Street Journal:

The core index of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric, the personal consumption expenditures price index, increased 2% from the prior quarter, the same as in the third quarter and in line with the Fed’s target.

Though widely expected, that trend is good news for the Fed. Inflation has slowed faster in recent months than most economists had expected, clearing the path for the Fed to start cutting rates—something some economists expect could happen as soon as March.

Still, the PCE price index trend contrasts with that of the other major inflation measure, the consumer-price index—which, due to methodological differences, more closely captures the prices consumers experience.

And core CPI is still running a bit hotter than anyone wants it to.

“These divergent trends could make the optics of cutting in March tricky,” said Tiffany Wilding, economist at Pimco, in a recent note.

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E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy

E.J. Smith is Founder of YourSurvivalGuy.com, Managing Director at Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd., a Managing Editor of Richardcyoung.com, and Editor-in-Chief of Youngresearch.com. His focus at all times is on preparing clients and readers for “Times Like These.” E.J. graduated from Babson College in Wellesley, Massachusetts, with a B.S. in finance and investments. In 1995, E.J. began his investment career at Fidelity Investments in Boston before joining Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd. in 1998. E.J. has trained at Sig Sauer Academy in Epping, NH. His first drum set was a 5-piece Slingerland with Zildjians. He grew-up worshiping Neil Peart (RIP) of the band Rush, and loves the song Tom Sawyer—the name of his family’s boat, a Grady-White Canyon 306. He grew up in Mattapoisett, MA, an idyllic small town on the water near Cape Cod. He spends time in Newport, RI and Bartlett, NH—both as far away from Wall Street as one could mentally get. The Newport office is on a quiet, tree lined street not far from the harbor and the log cabin in Bartlett, NH, the “Live Free or Die” state, sits on the edge of the White Mountain National Forest. He enjoys spending time in Key West (RIP JB) and Paris. Please get in touch with E.J. at ejsmith@yoursurvivalguy.com To sign up for my free monthly Survive & Thrive letter, click here.
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