“Red sky in morn, sailors take warn,” goes the saying. On this morning, the sun was as red as a lollipop, the kind that turns your tongue so red you want to show it to whoever’s next to you. Your Survival Guy heard it’s the dust, spun up from the wind, reflecting off the sun. Scientific American says it’s from the Bible (Matthew 16:2-3), attributed to a quote from Jesus. “When it is evening, ye say, fair weather: for the heaven is red. And in the morning, foul weather today for the heaven is red and lowering.”
NOAA, not Noah of the Ark, has a “small craft advisory in effect,” and my Weather app is showing a “! High Surf Advisory.” The island of Puerto Rico is without power and water too—again, as another hurricane gathers steam on a northern trajectory.
According to spaghetti models, this storm will spin out to sea. But when it comes to spaghetti, there always seems to be an errant strand when I spin my fork. I’m reminded by a loved one “to be careful about your shirt.” And even if a spot’s avoided, there is always the risk of an errant strand from one more bite cleaning up the pan. Which brings me to you.
Even with the best intentions, spaghetti models can still leave you with a mess. There are still plenty of uncertainties, such as: “should we haul the boat out now since we’ll be away this weekend? Should we pull in the Tucci umbrella and leave the others out? Will you go to the grocery store? Have you called your parents? What are they doing?”
“Hey, Dad, how’s it going?”
“Good, just hauled the dinghy. Storm’s coming.”
In my conversations with you this week, we talked about whether you want to sell your business or not. You tell me about the spaghetti models you’ve seen showing you how long your money will last. “Sounds interesting,” I say. “It takes inflation into account,” you say. “Inflation means different things to different people,” I say.
Growing up in my house, inflation meant fewer dinners out, but I never felt like we were suffering. Inflation predictions are like sitting at your dinner table and being talked to about your future. “There’s this amazing business started by this guy Steve Jobs,” you’re told. When all you can think about is that tonight’s Thursday, and The Cosby Show is on.
Over the last few years, you and I have been told by the so called “experts” to follow the science, invest in bitcoin, and “ESG is the future!” to name a few. And this comes from the left and right sides of the aisle. So called experts aren’t from one political party. When it comes to your money, everyone wants your vote.
Action Line: Predictions and models are cheap. Seriously, they are. You can get one online for free right now. See, I told you. What I want you to focus on is today, not tomorrow—the sun’s not coming out anyway. What you can do today with your lazy cash is get its butt off the couch and get it out there doing something with its life. It’s been a while since we’ve seen opportunities like this in fixed income. You can sink your teeth into this. Let’s go.
E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy
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