Your Survival Guy

Preparing your investments and family for when disaster strikes.

Disclosure

  • Home
  • Your Survival
    • Special Report: FOOD SHORTAGE: Crazed Hoarding Is Not Preparing
    • Your Survival Guy’s Super States
      • 2023
      • 2022
      • 2021
    • Constitutional Carry
    • EMP Threat
    • Tucker Explains
    • Newport Gas Outage
    • Water
      • Emergency Water Storage
      • Let There Be Water
    • Get Your Gun and Your Training Now
    • Satellite Phones
    • Navy SEAL Survival Kit
  • Your Money
    • Coronavirus Infects Stock Market
    • Looking for a Better America
    • You Invest, They Win
    • Where to Keep Your Cash
    • Paris
    • How to Buy a Boat
    • Dead or Alive? The Future of Long-Term Investing
    • Is Vanguard too Big?
    • Cryptocosm and Life After Google
    • The Last Intelligence Report
    • The Truth Behind the S&P 500
    • RAGE Gauge
    • How Many “Retirees” Will Keep Working?
    • Your Retirement Life
    • You’ll Love This if You’re Dreaming of an Active Retirement Life
  • Weapons
    • Self Defense
    • Every Family Should Own at Least One Shotgun: Here Are Three
  • About Me
    • Your Survival Guy: “Life on Main Street Hasn’t Been This Hard in a While”
    • Preparing for Times Like These
    • My Videos/Pics
    • Music
      • RIP Neil Peart: You Will Always Be Remembered as a “Modern-Day Warrior”
    • Your Survival Guy: Make Your Bed and The Hero Code
  • You
    • Our Cabin on Kodiak, Alaska
    • If You Are in Pain, this May Help. It Helped Me.
    • How to Save for a Grandchild
    • FIRE! Financial Independence, Retire Early
    • Compound Interest
    • Arithmetic of Portfolio Losses
    • Maximum Portfolio Withdrawal Rate
    • An Efficient Frontier
    • Retirement Compounders
    • Counterbalanced Total Returns
  • Survive & Thrive
    • March 2023: How Long Have You Been in the Investment Business?
    • February 2023: 4 Life Changing Words: “You Should Try This”
    • January 2023: Stacking Wood and Compounding Money
    • December 2022: Your Survival Guy Prefers Bombardier’s Global Express 7500
    • November 2022: Arriving in Style at Le Bristol Hotel, Paris
    • October 2022: Sink Your Teeth into These Bond Yields
    • September 2022: Do You Have the 7 Habits of Highly Effective People?
    • August 2022: “Watch This Boat off Our Stern,” My Dad Said “He’s Coming in HOT”
    • July 2022: MONEY TALKS: Your Survival Guy’s Best Service in Paris
    • June 2022: “I’ve Been with Richard Young for Over 30 Years Now”
    • May 2022: Survive “If You Fail to Plan, You Plan to Fail”
    • April 2022: Dream On! Fishing the Double Down in Key West
    • March 2022: Your Survival Guy Hears the Craziest Investing Stories
    • February 2022: Your Survival Guy’s 2022 Super States
    • January 2022: The Least Affordable Housing Market in the U.S.
    • December 2021: Listen Your Survival Guy is not “Mr. Peanut”
    • November 2021: Joe Biden is Weaponizing Your 401(k) Against You
    • October 2021: Time to Get Your Lazy Cash Off the Couch
    • September 2021: What’s Your Survival Guy Investing in Right Now?
    • August 2021: To Where Will You Flee?
    • July 2021: This Bubble’s Popped Baby
    • June 2021: Your Survival Guy’s Summer Job, Inflation & You
    • May 2021: You’re Telling Me Friends Ask You This Question
    • April 2021: Is There One Best Place in America for ‘Liberty Retirees?’
    • March 2021: America’s Growth Corridors
    • February 2021: Troops in D.C. & Your Authoritarian Virtual Panopticon
    • January 2021: Are You Ready for The Great Reset?
    • December 2020: Disaster Prep in Our Newport Bunker and Your Survival
    • November 2020: Election 2020 Edition: Stock Market is Predicting a Trump Win
    • October 2020: You Invest They Win, AGAIN
    • September 2020: Proud to be an American: Pro-Trump Parade Turns Rhode Island Red
    • August 2020: The Clock is Ticking: You Must Protect Your Family
    • July 2020: What Will Her Life Be Like Now?
    • June 2020: Your Survival Guy’s Home (and Money) Protection Plan
    • May 2020: Future Look at Covid-20, or the Next Deadly Virus
    • April 2020: Only Trump Saw the Risk in America’s Relationship with China
    • March 2020: Coronavirus Infects Stock Market
    • February 2020: Escape the City: Live Small, Cheap, and Safe in America
    • January 2020: Is Your Cash Safe? Probably not This Safe
    • December 2019
    • November 2019
    • October 2019
    • September 2019
    • August 2019
    • July 2019
    • June 2019
    • May 2019
    • April 2019
    • March 2019
    • February 2019
    • January 2019
    • December 2018
    • November 2018
    • October 2018
    • September 2018
    • August 2018
    • July 2018
    • June 2018
    • May 2018
    • April 2018
    • March 2018
    • February 2018
    • Welcome

Tax “Cuts” will Fuel the Florida Migration

October 19, 2018 By E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy

Image used under license from Shutterstock.com

During his tenure, Florida Governor Rick Scott has improved on what was already America’s favorite destination for retirees. President Trump’s tax reform made Florida even more attractive for retirees living in the high-tax states of New England. If Floridians elect Scott to the Senate, they will give him the opportunity to continue to protect their state’s appeal by working with the President to keep federal taxes low. Originally posted November 14, 2017.

If you’re looking to be a member of my Survive & Thrive club, click here.

Want to get away? If you live in blue-states New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and while I’m at it California, you do now. As the so-called tax “cut” grinds its way through the sausage maker in Washington, why would you stick around any longer than you have to?

Most of you aren’t sticking around for the weather. It’s more likely you’re here for your family. Last time I checked, raising a family is a big investment and where you live is a huge part of the equation. Which is why I have a problem with this tax “cut” stripping out deductions for state and local taxes and capping real estate deductions.

Yes, I appreciate that perhaps removing the deductions will make blue states walk the fiscal line. But I’m not buying it. The liberal progressives have ruined these states and they’re not going to change now.

The super-rich progressives will be just fine. They have their foundations and estates buttoned up already. They’re just governing based on guilt now.

Which leaves the successful, the small business owners–basically the middle class that actually sticks around to raise their family–to clean up the mess. This is not the group that should be penalized by tax “cuts.”

As the baby boomers shift into retirement mode, that humming sound you hear is the sound of the moving vans and trucks bee-lining down route 95 South to tax haven Florida. And the progressives think this is sustainable how?


Here’s the numbers courtesy of the WSJ:

Democrats contend that marginal tax rates don’t matter to investment and growth, and even some conservative intellectuals are conceding the point. But the evidence from wealth fleeing high-tax states shows how sensitive the affluent are to rate increases.

The liberal tax model is to fleece the rich to finance spending on entitlements and government programs that invariably grow faster than the economy and revenues. IRS data on tax migration show this model is now breaking down in progressive states as the affluent run for cover and the middle class is left paying the bills.

Between 2012 and 2015 (the most recent data), a net $8.5 billion in adjusted gross income left New Jersey while $6.2 billion poured out of Connecticut—4% of the latter state’s total income. Illinois lost $13.6 billion. During that period, Florida with no income tax gained $39.3 billion in AGI.

Not surprisingly, income flows down the tax gradient. In 2015 New York (where the combined state and local top rate is 12.7%) lost a net $850 million in AGI to New Jersey (8.97%) and Connecticut (6.99%). At the same time, the Garden State gave up $335 million to Pennsylvania (3.07%), and $60 million left Connecticut for the state formerly known as Taxachusetts (5.1%). Taxpayers from New York, New Jersey and Connecticut escaped to Florida with $3.2 billion in income. Florida Gov. Rick Scott ought to pay these states a commission.

The affluent account for a disproportionate share of the income migration. For instance, individuals reporting more than $200,000 in AGI in 2015 made up 57% of the income outflow from Connecticut (compared to 48% of total state AGI) and 57% of the inflow to Florida.

Snowbird flight isn’t new, but migration has accelerated as taxes have increased. Income outflow from Connecticut averaged $500 million between 2003 and 2007. Then in 2009 GOP Gov. Jodi Rell raised the top tax rate to 6.5% from 5%, which her Democratic successor Dannel Malloy lifted a few years later to 6.7% and again two years ago to 6.99%. AGI outflow between 2012 and 2015 averaged $1.6 billion.

In 2004 Democrats raised New Jersey’s top rate on individuals earning more than $500,000 to 8.97% from 6.37%. Between 2012 and 2015, annual income outflow from New Jersey averaged $2.1 billion—twice as much as between 2000 and 2003 after adjusting for inflation.

Republican Gov. Chris Christie blocked his Democratic legislature’s attempts to reimpose a millionaire’s tax that lapsed in 2009. But Democratic Governor-elect won the election this month by promising to soak the rich even more, and his legislature will oblige.

The prospect of future tax hikes appears to have propelled an exodus of high earners from Illinois, which has a relatively low and flat 4.99% income tax. Democrats raised the rate from 3% in 2010, but the tax hike lapsed in 2015 after Bruce Rauner became Governor. House Speaker Michael Madigan finally this summer secured GOP legislative support to override the Governor’s veto and reinstate the higher rate.

But the tax increase won’t raise enough money to finance the state’s $250 billion unfunded pension liability, and the long-time goal of unions has been to enact a graduated income tax. The affluent know they’ll get soaked eventually and are seeking shelter. Top earners made up 47% of Illinois’s income flight in 2015 compared to 33% four years earlier. Income taxes from the 306 Cook County denizens who decamped to Palm Beach in 2015 with $258 million of income could have paid 200 teacher salaries. Alas.

This millionaires’ diaspora has harmed income and economic growth. Real GDP between 2011 and 2016 grew annually at a paltry 0.2% in Connecticut, 1% in Illinois and 1.2% in New Jersey, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. These states were the slowest growing in their respective geographic regions, though other high tax states in the Northeast didn’t fare much better.

As a result, revenues have repeatedly fallen short of projections in New Jersey, Illinois and Connecticut while budget deficits have ballooned. Democratic lawmakers have cut public services and funds to local governments, which have responded by raising property taxes.

The Tax Foundation says New Jersey, Connecticut, Vermont, New York and Illinois have the highest property taxes in the country. Over the last two years, the average Chicago homeowner’s property taxes have risen by roughly $1,000. Higher property taxes hit middle-class earners especially hard and are another incentive to leave a state.

***

As these state laboratories of Democratic governance show, dunning the rich ultimately hurts people of all incomes by repressing the growth needed to create jobs, boost wages and raise government revenues that fund public services. If the Republican House and Senate tax-reform bills follow through with eliminating all or part of the state and local tax deduction, progressive states will have an even harder time hiding the damage. They should be the next candidates for reform.

Read more here.

The following two tabs change content below.
  • Bio
  • Latest Posts
My Twitter profileMy Facebook profileMy Instagram profile

E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy

E.J. Smith is Founder of YourSurvivalGuy.com, Managing Director at Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd., a Managing Editor of Richardcyoung.com, and Editor-in-Chief of Youngresearch.com. His focus at all times is on preparing clients and readers for “Times Like These.” E.J. graduated from Babson College in Wellesley, Massachusetts, with a B.S. in finance and investments. In 1995, E.J. began his investment career at Fidelity Investments in Boston before joining Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd. in 1998. E.J. has trained at Sig Sauer Academy in Epping, NH. His first drum set was a 5-piece Slingerland with Zildjians. He grew-up worshiping Neil Peart (RIP) of the band Rush, and loves the song Tom Sawyer—the name of his family’s boat, a Grady-White Canyon 306. He grew up in Mattapoisett, MA, an idyllic small town on the water near Cape Cod. He spends time in Newport, RI and Bartlett, NH—both as far away from Wall Street as one could mentally get. The Newport office is on a quiet, tree lined street not far from the harbor and the log cabin in Bartlett, NH, the “Live Free or Die” state, sits on the edge of the White Mountain National Forest. He enjoys spending time in Key West and Paris. Please get in touch with E.J. at ejsmith@yoursurvivalguy.com To sign up for my free monthly Survive & Thrive letter, click here.
My Twitter profileMy Facebook profileMy Instagram profile

Latest posts by E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy (see all)

  • If You’re a Highly Effective Person, We Should Talk - March 24, 2023
  • What’s Happening to Charles Schwab? - March 24, 2023
  • Prepare for the Predictable - March 24, 2023
  • Is Vanguard Voting Against Your Political Beliefs? - March 23, 2023
  • Call It the Difference between Normal and Crazy - March 23, 2023

If you enjoyed this post, email it to a friend:

  • Email
  • Print
  • Facebook
  • LinkedIn
  • Twitter
  • WhatsApp

Related Posts

Money 101

Recent Posts

  • If You’re a Highly Effective Person, We Should Talk
  • What’s Happening to Charles Schwab?
  • Prepare for the Predictable
  • Is Vanguard Voting Against Your Political Beliefs?
  • Call It the Difference between Normal and Crazy
  • “I Need Preservation of Principal and Growth”
  • DEMOCRATIC SENATOR: Biden’s ESG Veto “Absolutely Infuriating”
  • Are You Fairly Wealthy? I’m Listening
  • How Long Is Your Water Supply Chain?
  • Your Survival Guy’s BEST Insider’s Guide to Key West

Trending

  • Is Vanguard Voting Against Your Political Beliefs?
  • What's Happening to Charles Schwab?
  • Are You Living Your Best Life?
  • Will the Black Swan Usher in Digital Dollars?
  • How the Rich Get Richer: You Invest, They Win
  • “I Need Preservation of Principal and Growth”
  • March RAGE Gauge: Will the Black Swan Usher in Digital Dollars?
  • New England Is Starving for Energy
  • Your Survival Guy’s BEST Insider’s Guide to Key West
  • For Whom Is Your Portfolio Serving?

Must Reads

  • PREPPING: You Don’t Have to Save the World in a Weekend
  • Your Survival Guy Prefers Bombardier’s Global Express 7500
  • When Is the Best Time for You to Do This?
  • The Importance of a Balanced Portfolio
  • Investment Advice: Sticking with the Four-Year-Olds
  • Here’s Why You Need a 15-Year Retirement Investment Plan
  • BLACKROCK’S BITCOIN-ESG PARADOX: You Can’t Have It All
  • Your Survival Guy’s 2022 Super States: #1 New Hampshire
  • What Your Survival Guy Invested in Today
  • The Masters of the Universe Align Themselves with CHINA Using YOUR Money?
Only if You’re Serious
Crazed Hoarding Is not Preparing
How to Save Rainwater Effectively
Your Survival Guy in Paris
Your Survival Guy's Fishing Stories
Financial Independence, Retire Early
Money 101
Pandemic Creates Virtual Panopticon
Emergency Water Storage
Find Freedom in America
Second Amendment
How Can You Save Money for Your Grandchild
Great Reset
See Who's Missing the Boat
Richard  Young Reports
How You Can Save Money for Your Grandchild
Why Fidelity is Number One
The Best States for Survival
You Invest, They Win
Escape the City
Why Vanguard is Too Big for YOU
Island Life

Copyright © 2023 | Terms & Conditions

loading Cancel
Post was not sent - check your email addresses!
Email check failed, please try again
Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email.