The chaos of the summer of 2020, spurred on by radical blue state politicians and followed by years of crime abetted by the Biden administration’s lackadaisical attitude toward protecting Americans, is finally over. The Trump administration has made a priority out of cleaning up America’s streets, and the data shows it’s working.
The Department of Justice has released its Preliminary Victimization Estimates from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), and the numbers show a strong improvement during President Trump’s first year in office.
| Number and rate of violent victimizations, by type of crime, 2024 and 2025 | ||||
| Preliminary Victimization Estimates from the NCVS, 2025 (NCJ 312234, BJS, October 2026) | ||||
| Type of violent crime | Number | Rate per 1,000 | ||
| 2024 | 2025* | 2024 | 2025* | |
| Total violent crime | 8,206,700 | 7,496,300 | 28.7 | 25.7 |
| Rape/sexual assault | 910,530 | 804,180 | 3.2 | 2.8 |
| Robbery | 626,420 | 453,870 | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| Assault | 6,669,750 | 6,238,260 | 23.3 | 21.4 |
| Aggravated assault | 1,297,010 | 906,590 | 4.5 | 3.1 |
| Simple assault | 5,372,740 | 5,331,660 | 18.8 | 18.3 |
| Violent crime excluding simple assault | 2,833,960 | 2,164,640 | 9.9 | 7.4 |
Notes:
*Comparison year. Estimates for 2025 are preliminary and appear in green. Estimates for 2024 are final. †Difference with comparison year is significant at the 95% confidence level (highlighted in yellow for 2024 values). Rate is per 1,000 persons age 12 or older. Total population of persons age 12 or older was 286,415,910 in 2024 and 291,522,610 in 2025. Includes threatened, attempted, and completed occurrences of crimes. Details may not sum to totals due to rounding. Excludes homicide because the NCVS is based on interviews with victims. Violent crime includes rape or sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault. Violent crime excluding simple assault includes rape or sexual assault, robbery, and aggravated assault. Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, Redesign Version, 2024 and National Crime Victimization Survey, 2025.
Crime Down in America
The DOJ noted some highlights in their data, explaining:
- The rate of violent crime excluding simple assault declined 25%, from 9.9 per 1,000 persons age 12 or older in 2024 to 7.4 per 1,000 in 2025.1
- The rate of aggravated assault declined 31%, from 4.5 per 1,000 persons age 12 or older in 2024 to 3.1 per 1,000 in 2025
- The rate of property victimization declined 19%, from 138.0 per 1,000 households in 2024 to 111.2 per 1,000 in 2025.
- The rates of burglary or trespassing (down 25%), motor vehicle theft (down 30%), and other types of household theft (down 19%) decreased from 2024 to 2025.
FBI Report: Murder Rate Has Fallen Too
The NCVS doesn’t cover murder, but the FBI’s recent 2025 reported crime statistics show that murder and nonnegligent manslaughter have also fallen. The Bureau writes:
Data reported to the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program shows 2024 to 2025 marked the largest year-to-year decline in violent crime rates since FBI estimations began in 1936.
Following the May announcement that violent crime decreased 9.3% from 2024 to 2025, the FBI released detailed data tables on more than 13 million criminal offenses reported to the FBI by participating law enforcement agencies for 2025. The data support the previously released violent crime trends:
- Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter offenses decreased an estimated 18.1%.
- Rape offenses decreased an estimated 7.6%.
- Aggravated assault figures decreased an estimated 7.2%.
- Robbery offenses decreased an estimated 18.5%.
The 2025 murder rate of 4.1 per 100,000 inhabitants is tied with 1955 and 1956 for the lowest murder rate.
Not an Ordinary Drop in Crime
Dr. John R. Lott, Jr., founder of the Crime Research Prevention Center, explains at RealClearInvestigations that these declines in the crime rate aren’t just normal trends. He writes:
These declines go far beyond normal cyclical fluctuations in crime. The murder rate has fallen to record lows. Crime also shows a clear pattern over time. Felony violent crime declined during Trump’s first term, surged under Biden, and is now plunging during Trump’s second term. The pandemic can’t explain Biden’s increase: Felony violent crime rose 59% from 2021 to 2024, including a 4% increase in 2024.
Lott concludes:
“The increased deportation of illegal immigrants who had a criminal record played an important role in the historic reduction in violent crime in the last two years,” David Mustard, a distinguished professor at the University of Georgia who researches crime extensively, told RCI.
At the same time, more Americans report carrying concealed handguns for protection. Surveys show that the share of general-election voters who carry concealed handguns increased from 24.3% in December 2024 to 30.9% in July 2026. The increase has been especially pronounced among minority voters, who are the most likely victims of violent crime. Hispanic and black voters are 2.6 times as likely as white voters to report carrying all or most of the time.
Recent peer-reviewed research finds that right-to-carry concealed handgun laws reduce violent crime by about 5%, while constitutional carry laws reduce it by more than 15%.
Researchers point out that the historic decline in crime coincided with more aggressive law enforcement, tougher prosecution policies, increased deportations of criminal illegal immigrants, and more Americans carrying firearms for self-defense. “The results are unmistakable,” said professor Gary Mauser, who has extensively studied crime at Simon Fraser University in Canada. “Americans experienced unprecedented drops in crime rates in 2025, and rates are continuing to fall in 2026. The government’s most comprehensive measure of crime shows that the improvement was far greater than the FBI’s widely publicized figures suggested.”
Action Line: You are your family’s last line of defense against crime. Get your gun and your training now. Learn to be proficient because if the time comes and you need to defend your family, you won’t rise to the occasion; you’ll fall to the level of your training. Be sure that level is high enough to get the job done. Click here to subscribe to my free monthly Survive & Thrive letter.
