You don’t need a newspaper, computer, or phone to know what’s going on in the stock market. Simply take a stroll to the waterfront in Newport, Rhode Island, Nantucket, Massachusetts, or Edgartown on the Vineyard, and you can see with your own eyes how the haves and the have yachts are livin’—where 50 meters or bigger is the price of admission.
Trust me, these folk are not wringing their hands over fuel prices, and their crew, whom Your Survival Guy sees at the health food store in their matching outfits, are not looking twice at prices. The only despair or wrinkled brow to be seen is if what they “need” isn’t in stock. Imagine what the owner will say. The horror. Such is life on the high seas.
In my conversations with you, you’re telling me about the big-time fishing tournaments along your coastal haunts and how well subscribed they are this year, always a good barometer of how the stock market is performing. Again, there’s not much quibbling about paying for the best gear if it brings aboard a trophy fish to win the Calcutta.
How about my friends out west? Good luck seeing beyond the cranes at the resorts. But when you do, you won’t believe your eyes. The build out in Deer Valley East Village is massive. Let’s just hope it snows next season, right?
Your Survival Guy finds it all difficult to take in when I’m driving around Newport. A dangerous endeavor, to be sure. The dumb, fat, and blind are stepping onto crosswalks with the confidence of a lemming, without blinking an eye, looking, or even breaking their stride. It’s as if big government is by their side to make sure they get across safely. It’s not good, and it’s not going to get any better. The socialist movement is afoot. Take note.
Which brings me to your money, honey. I’ll tell you one thing: I like what I’m seeing with short to mid-term treasury yields. I like what new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is saying about slaying inflation. Is there a better way to cut rates by doing nothing? Stay tuned. Make sure you have your portfolio dialed in to what makes sense for you. And if you need some more perspective, give me a buzz or shoot me an email. I’m here or out on the water aboard the Tom Sawyer, thinking about seeing Rush live this summer.
If Warsh really wants to slay inflation, he’ll have to defeat Americans’ inflation expectations, which currently see inflation at 6% over the next year.
The latest CPI report was encouraging, with prices falling 0.422% compared to the previous month, but most of that was fuel related, and since then, the war is officially back on against Iran, so it’s hard to say if those price reductions will last.
Americans are also facing rising housing prices that won’t relent. The median price of an existing home has reached $440,600, the highest ever, according to the National Association of Realtors.
As Milton Friedman explained, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” So to reduce it, the money supply, or at least its rate of growth, must be reduced. The rate of growth of M2 has climbed to 5.58% and shows no signs of slowing unless Chairman Warsh takes action.
Americans are fairly nervous at the moment, but a swift and peaceful solution to the conflict in Iran would go a long way to making them feel better. Until then, my RAGE Gauge remains at 100.
Action Line: When you want to talk about inflation and your portfolio, email me at ejsmith@yoursurvivalguy.com.
