OK, Your Survival Guy’s latest RAGE Gauge is in, and it’s a mixed bag. What did you expect me to say? Let’s dig into this.
Recently, when Your Survival Guy and Gal were out to dinner at one of our favorite restaurants, sitting at the bar, we chatted with a nice, so we thought, couple next to us. Nice, until the subject of politics came up. That’s when I usually keep quiet. Not so for the person I was with. It got a little tense, and all I could say at that point was “check please.”
What’s clear today is that opinions are given as facts, and they’re pushed on you. They’re based on where they get their misinformation. There’s not a whole lot of reasoning going on or listening, for that matter. The information age isn’t making everyone smarter. Far from it.
Which is why I want to focus on my three favorite letters, y-o-u. And understand we can’t control the world, but we can control our slice of it. And when I think about my own situation, I like to think of the phrase “margin of safety” from Ben Graham’s The Intelligent Investor. And I’m not even thinking about investing, I’m thinking about life.
The minute you begin thinking about safety, you immediately begin thinking about how well that invisible moat you built will protect you and your family. It’s hard to do this when “life is good.” It’s too late to do it when life is not so good. How would you react in different scenarios? How would your kids be? Do they know how to think like this?
Let’s not pretend we can predict the future. Instead, let’s prepare for it. You have what it takes. I believe in you.
I have selected a few interesting datapoints for you to take a look at. The economy is a mixed bag right now, with positive signs for the future, but worrisome inflation on the rise once again.
The economy finally put together two months in a row of positive employment numbers with growth in non-farm payrolls in March and April. That’s great to see after months of oscillating employment reports.
Last month’s retail sales growth was the fastest since 2023, and the fifth month of growth in a row. One cautionary note about the recent retail sales growth numbers is that Americans are dipping into their savings to spend.
Cyclical railroad traffic is way up above recent years. Strong railroad traffic can be an indicator of increased economic activity.
New orders of non-defense capital goods spiked by $1.1 billion from February to March. That can be an indication that companies are willing to invest and take some risk.
Americans’ expectations of future inflation remain heightened, with average respondents suggesting an average rate of 6.1% inflation over the next twelve months.
Action Line: Keep your eyes open in times like these. Is the good going to turn into “better,” or will it break down into “bad?” As I wrote above, you can’t predict; all you can do is prepare yourself and your investment portfolio in a way in which you can accept your fate in either outcome. When you need help, email me at ejsmith@yoursurvivalguy.com. And click here to subscribe to my free monthly Survive & Thrive letter.
