There aren’t many more astute observers of American society than Joel Kotkin. Kotkin is a Fellow in urban studies at Chapman University and has authored many books, including The City: A Global History in 2007. Kotkin has a unique way of isolating and defining the cultural fault lines in American society. Kotkin explains in a recent City Journal post that one side of America is receptive to Charlie Kirk’s philosophy of “traditional values, religious faith, and family life.” Meanwhile, the other side is tied to ideas antithetical to Kirk’s. Kotkin concludes:
Which America will prevail? It’s complicated. In the short run, the postmodernists are ascendant within the Democratic Party, particularly in cities where millennials and Gen Z professionals concentrate. Their politics are tied to postmodernist notions about race, equity, and gender.
The cost-of-living crisis remains the biggest opportunity to expand their footprint. Young Americans rank housing, along with inflation, as their top financial worry, driving fears that they may not achieve the foundation of middle-class life. An Institute for Family Studies report found that, since 1970, the share of young adults who own the home they live in has declined from 50 percent to about 25 percent to 30 percent.
When people, especially the young, believe that they cannot earn their way to a better life, they may be tempted to trust their future to the benevolence of the state. This is how the postmodernists might expand their geographic and demographic base. A recent survey suggests that up to half of voters under 40 favor socialism. These sentiments suggest that Zohran Mamdani-like proposals for industrial policy, rent control, and social housing could be attractive, particularly if prices also rise in the periphery.
Ultimately, the future hinges on what Americans, particularly Millennials and Gen Z, decide matters most. Maturity could prove a boon to traditionalists; some 1 million millennials become mothers every year. They may increasingly turn to the familial values of sacrifice and saving for the future, as well as looking for a home with enough space to raise children. Fertility and migration trends suggest that red states will win as many as 11 new congressional seats by 2030, adding to their power in the Electoral College.
The two Americas reflect two opposed visions of a shared national future. If one were to bet, the long-term prospects would seem to favor adherents of Charlie Kirk’s traditionalist vision, but the outcome is far from certain. Meantime, the hardest part may be keeping Kirk’s model of civil debate alive, so that progressives and conservatives can contend with one another in open forums without descending into violence. The two Americas may not agree on much, but they must find a way to coexist.
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