The National Retail Federation (NRF) has been navigating the effects of tariffs and expects fairly stable conditions through the end of 2025 and into next year. Your Survival Guy will be watching closely how this unfolds in early 2026. The NRF writes:
With tariff uncertainty continuing but most holiday merchandise already in stores or warehouses, import cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports should see its usual end-of-year slowdown in November and December, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
“We’ve spent most of the year worried about the impact of tariffs on both inflation and the supply chain but the holiday season is here and mitigation efforts appear to have paid off,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Store shelves are well stocked and the effect on prices has been minimized, largely thanks to retailers taking steps like frontloading imports during times of low or delayed tariff increases or absorbing the costs themselves. Consumers should be able to find the products they want at prices they like.”
A 20% “fentanyl” tariff on China will be reduced to 10% on Nov. 10 and a twice-delayed significant increase in “reciprocal” tariffs on China that were set to take effect the same day has been delayed for a year. An existing 10% reciprocal tariff on China imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act remains in place, but the Supreme Court heard arguments Wednesday on the legality of tariffs under IEEPA.
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said on-again, off-again tariff policy has made long-term planning difficult for importers and ocean carriers alike.
“These conditions make market forecasting highly uncertain,” Hackett said. “Our trade outlook is for a small decline in imports this year compared with 2024 and a further, larger decline in the first quarter of 2026.”
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