How Low Can Home Sales Fall?

November 21, 2023 By E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy

Your Survival Guy is watching as existing home sales hit levels last seen during the aftermath of the housing crisis.

According to the hopeful economists at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), sales will rise next year by 13.5%, and mortgage rates will pull back to 6% to 7% by Spring. All that remains to be seen. NAR writes:

“Builders are back on their feet, up 5% in newly constructed home sales year to date,” said [NAR Chief Economist Lawrence] Yun. “Builders can simply create inventory. In a housing shortage environment, builders are really benefiting.”

He explained NAR’s advocacy efforts are working to help create inventory, but it will take time.

“Pent-up sellers cannot wait any longer. People will begin to say, ‘life goes on,'” said Yun. “Listings will steadily show up, and new home sales will continue to do well. Existing home sales will rise by 13.5% next year.”

Yun also said that international buyers have declined, but once they return to the market, there will be a boost in buying.

He reiterated the value of homeownership, stating, “Consumers are happy with real estate service. The market is fiercely competitive with so many business models among which to choose – from do it yourselfers to iBuyers to discount brokerages, to full service and rebates. American home buyers have benefited immensely from such wide-ranging choices in real estate services. Moreover, homeowners have accumulated sizable wealth over time.”

Action Line: Yun’s take is pretty much what you’d expect from someone employed by the real estate industry. Unlike Yun, Your Survival Guy is not in the predictions business. I’m not trying to imagine what will happen next year or spin things optimistically. I see rates in the market that savers can sink their teeth into right now. It’s hard to predict the future, but it’s straightforward to prepare for it. When you want to prepare for the future, I’m here.

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E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy

E.J. Smith is Founder of YourSurvivalGuy.com, Managing Director at Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd., a Managing Editor of Richardcyoung.com, and Editor-in-Chief of Youngresearch.com. His focus at all times is on preparing clients and readers for “Times Like These.” E.J. graduated from Babson College in Wellesley, Massachusetts, with a B.S. in finance and investments. In 1995, E.J. began his investment career at Fidelity Investments in Boston before joining Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd. in 1998. E.J. has trained at Sig Sauer Academy in Epping, NH. His first drum set was a 5-piece Slingerland with Zildjians. He grew-up worshiping Neil Peart (RIP) of the band Rush, and loves the song Tom Sawyer—the name of his family’s boat, a Grady-White Canyon 306. He grew up in Mattapoisett, MA, an idyllic small town on the water near Cape Cod. He spends time in Newport, RI and Bartlett, NH—both as far away from Wall Street as one could mentally get. The Newport office is on a quiet, tree lined street not far from the harbor and the log cabin in Bartlett, NH, the “Live Free or Die” state, sits on the edge of the White Mountain National Forest. He enjoys spending time in Key West (RIP JB) and Paris. Please get in touch with E.J. at ejsmith@yoursurvivalguy.com To sign up for my free monthly Survive & Thrive letter, click here.

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