You have probably heard politicians and central bankers who dismiss inflation in gasoline and food, saying they're "non-core." They want you to forget that these are the most important items you buy each week. They say those prices are too volatile to count. You've noticed just how volatile they are when you balance your accounts. Instead, they want you to focus on "core" inflation. The Federal Reserve prefers you to follow an inflation measuring index known as Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which excludes prices of food and energy. The problem for them, and for you, is that … [Read more...]

In my conversations with you, you’re telling me the real estate market is slowing down. That’s not to say there’s no one looking to buy. Demand is still hot in certain places. One client out in Jackson Hole said all the realtors are looking for bartending jobs. The tech bust might have something to do with it. Higher rates might be in play too. But overall, it could still be a lack of supply. Your Survival Guy’s been finding some good values with French Chardonnay that aren’t too oaky. One is by the glass at the Clarke Cooke House in Newport, RI. It’s a Castelbeaux, Vin de Pays, FR, for … [Read more...]

Joe Biden has repeatedly doubled down on his accusations that the inflation American families are suffering through is Vladimir Putin's fault, even though price increases began before the war in Ukraine. Now, Biden has admitted that Americans will be forced to suffer inflation "as long as it takes" to defeat Putin. The Daily Mail's Emily Goodin reports: President Joe Biden on Thursday said Americans should pay higher gas prices for 'as long as it takes' as he doubled down on blaming Russian President Vladimir Putin for the United States' domestic woes. Biden, in a press conference wrapping … [Read more...]

All is not lost in a downward moving market, especially as interest rates rise. One way to think about your portfolio is to look at it over a period of, say, 15 years. What’s your 15-year plan? Can you survive another three years like this one? How about the last three years? They weren’t too bad. Thinking over a 15-year period might not be as hard as you think. The last 15 included a real bruising time during the financial crisis (I hope you didn’t sell). Prices go up, and prices go down—dividends and interest rates do too, especially in times like these, and that’s a good thing. Today … [Read more...]

Remember when interest rates were zero? When stocks were booming? Now with tiny interest rate increases, the NASDAQ is down a third, bitcoin is in ruins, and cryptocurrency accounts are in lockdown. What gives? In a word: Speculation. When the risk-free rate of return is nothing for years and years, and then investors stick their necks out with retirement money into areas where they don’t belong, it’s dangerous. This isn’t to say there won’t be a rebound. In my observation, when investors start losing more than, say, 15%, the sell orders start flying. They can’t handle the losses, and in … [Read more...]

Kellogg has announced a plan to split into three businesses. The largest leftover business will be made up of the company's snack business, which produces 80% of the revenues for the company in its current configuration. The company will split off its cereal business and its plant-based-foods unit into separate companies. Annie Gasparro reports for The Wall Street Journal: Kellogg Co. said it plans to break up its business into three companies, seeking to jump-start its larger, faster-growing snacks business while helping its namesake cereal brands regain their footing on supermarket … [Read more...]

When you spend a lifetime working and saving where hours turn into days, weeks, months, and years; you probably have something to show for it. Days do feel like years in times like these. Time stands still. But not all is lost especially if you’re with me. Imagine my headline as we round the corner into the midterm elections. Who’s to blame for that? Who did that? Look, I’m Your Survival Guy. I’m Your Rich Man Poor Man and a Prudent Man to boot. I know from experience the pain of falling markets is much worse than the comfort of rising ones. That’s why I write to you daily about focusing on … [Read more...]

After decades of low-interest rates, inflation has finally caught up to the Fed. America never should have been in this position. Everyone knew that pulling demand from the future with low rates would eventually catch up to the Fed, but no one seemed to worry about that. The value of the dollar has been regularly falling since America came off the gold standard, and in the 21st Century, it's been continuing that trend. But during the Biden era, the rate of dollar value destruction has accelerated. Now the Fed has a chance to make it right, or at least clean up some of the mess they … [Read more...]

When most investors are simply scurrying for some peace of mind, that's the time for you to think long-term. What’s your cash situation like? Can you make it through the next few years? Are there areas where you see opportunities? I know some of you with second homes are thinking about cashing in, for example. The next question is, where do you put the proceeds? It’s not a simple answer. I want you to think about how long it took you to save your money. Think about how many hours, days, weeks, months, and years you worked to get to where you are. This is not a trivial exercise. For most, … [Read more...]