Your Survival Guy

Preparing your investments and family for when disaster strikes.

Disclosure

  • Home
  • Your Survival
    • Special Report: FOOD SHORTAGE: Crazed Hoarding Is Not Preparing
    • Your Survival Guy’s Super States
    • Constitutional Carry
    • EMP Threat
    • Tucker Explains
    • Newport Gas Outage
    • Water
      • Emergency Water Storage
      • Let There Be Water
    • Get Your Gun and Your Training Now
    • Satellite Phones
    • Navy SEAL Survival Kit
  • Your Money
    • Coronavirus Infects Stock Market
    • Looking for a Better America
    • You Invest, They Win
    • Where to Keep Your Cash
    • Paris
    • How to Buy a Boat
    • Dead or Alive? The Future of Long-Term Investing
    • Is Vanguard too Big?
    • Cryptocosm and Life After Google
    • The Last Intelligence Report
    • The Truth Behind the S&P 500
    • RAGE Gauge
    • How Many “Retirees” Will Keep Working?
    • Your Retirement Life
    • You’ll Love This if You’re Dreaming of an Active Retirement Life
  • Weapons
    • Self Defense
    • Every Family Should Own at Least One Shotgun: Here Are Three
  • About Me
    • Your Survival Guy: “Life on Main Street Hasn’t Been This Hard in a While”
    • Preparing for Times Like These
    • My Videos/Pics
    • Music
      • RIP Neil Peart: You Will Always Be Remembered as a “Modern-Day Warrior”
    • Your Survival Guy: Make Your Bed and The Hero Code
  • You
    • Our Cabin on Kodiak, Alaska
    • If You Are in Pain, this May Help. It Helped Me.
    • How to Save for a Grandchild
    • FIRE! Financial Independence, Retire Early
    • Compound Interest
    • Arithmetic of Portfolio Losses
    • Maximum Portfolio Withdrawal Rate
    • An Efficient Frontier
    • Retirement Compounders
    • Counterbalanced Total Returns
  • Survive & Thrive
    • February 2023: 4 Life Changing Words: “You Should Try This”
    • January 2023: Stacking Wood and Compounding Money
    • December 2022: Your Survival Guy Prefers Bombardier’s Global Express 7500
    • November 2022: Arriving in Style at Le Bristol Hotel, Paris
    • October 2022: Sink Your Teeth into These Bond Yields
    • September 2022: Do You Have the 7 Habits of Highly Effective People?
    • August 2022: “Watch This Boat off Our Stern,” My Dad Said “He’s Coming in HOT”
    • July 2022: MONEY TALKS: Your Survival Guy’s Best Service in Paris
    • June 2022: “I’ve Been with Richard Young for Over 30 Years Now”
    • May 2022: Survive “If You Fail to Plan, You Plan to Fail”
    • April 2022: Dream On! Fishing the Double Down in Key West
    • March 2022: Your Survival Guy Hears the Craziest Investing Stories
    • February 2022: Your Survival Guy’s 2022 Super States
    • January 2022: The Least Affordable Housing Market in the U.S.
    • December 2021: Listen Your Survival Guy is not “Mr. Peanut”
    • November 2021: Joe Biden is Weaponizing Your 401(k) Against You
    • October 2021: Time to Get Your Lazy Cash Off the Couch
    • September 2021: What’s Your Survival Guy Investing in Right Now?
    • August 2021: To Where Will You Flee?
    • July 2021: This Bubble’s Popped Baby
    • June 2021: Your Survival Guy’s Summer Job, Inflation & You
    • May 2021: You’re Telling Me Friends Ask You This Question
    • April 2021: Is There One Best Place in America for ‘Liberty Retirees?’
    • March 2021: America’s Growth Corridors
    • February 2021: Troops in D.C. & Your Authoritarian Virtual Panopticon
    • January 2021: Are You Ready for The Great Reset?
    • December 2020: Disaster Prep in Our Newport Bunker and Your Survival
    • November 2020: Election 2020 Edition: Stock Market is Predicting a Trump Win
    • October 2020: You Invest They Win, AGAIN
    • September 2020: Proud to be an American: Pro-Trump Parade Turns Rhode Island Red
    • August 2020: The Clock is Ticking: You Must Protect Your Family
    • July 2020: What Will Her Life Be Like Now?
    • June 2020: Your Survival Guy’s Home (and Money) Protection Plan
    • May 2020: Future Look at Covid-20, or the Next Deadly Virus
    • April 2020: Only Trump Saw the Risk in America’s Relationship with China
    • March 2020: Coronavirus Infects Stock Market
    • February 2020: Escape the City: Live Small, Cheap, and Safe in America
    • January 2020: Is Your Cash Safe? Probably not This Safe
    • December 2019
    • November 2019
    • October 2019
    • September 2019
    • August 2019
    • July 2019
    • June 2019
    • May 2019
    • April 2019
    • March 2019
    • February 2019
    • January 2019
    • December 2018
    • November 2018
    • October 2018
    • September 2018
    • August 2018
    • July 2018
    • June 2018
    • May 2018
    • April 2018
    • March 2018
    • February 2018
    • Welcome

How Trump Wins the Nomination

February 26, 2016 By E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy

donald trumpTrump was good last night, not great, but good enough to win the debate. To win the Republican nomination he needs 1,237 delegates. Trump will have a total of around 85 with the Nevada allocation. The Golden Four states of California, New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey hold 389 delegates. Since 1980, the Republican front-runner has swept the Golden Four to win the nomination. Voting takes place later in the season for the Golden Four (CA-June 6/NY-April 19/PA-April 26/NJ-June 7). If history holds true, then Trump’s magic number to hit, prior to the Golden Four contests, is 848 delegates. The Hill explains how he can do it here:

If he maintains this momentum throughout the first two weeks of March, he will have more delegates than any candidate could feasibly match going into the golden four states, guaranteeing him that frontrunner status that turns out late primary voters and transforms candidates into nominees.

The first two weeks of March present the ultimate test for any campaign, with 27 nominating contests and 1,309 possible delegates.  An evaluation of recent polls, state demographics, and regional indicators, reveals that Trump is positioned to take 672 of those delegates with wins in 13 of the 27 states (Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Massachusetts, Vermont, Louisiana, Maine, Michigan, Mississippi, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, and North Carolina).  In six further states (Oklahoma, Tennessee, Virginia, Kansas, Kentucky, and Ohio) Trump retains slimmer polling advantages, marking these as “likely Trump” states, and providing him with a prospective 302 additional delegates.  In five further states and territories (Puerto Rico, Hawaii, Idaho, Washington DC, and the Northern Mariana Islands) lack of up-to-date information makes accurately predicting the outcomes impossible, leaving those 102 delegates effectively up for grabs.   The remaining three states (Arkansas, Texas, and Minnesota) are divided between the rest of the pack, with Cruz polling in front in Texas and Arkansas, and Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) narrowly edging Trump out in Minnesota.

However, as evidenced by the Iowa caucus, minor Trump leads in polls can still result in election night victories for his opponents, as the organizational capabilities of Trump’s campaign are some of the weakest in the field.  Yet of the six “likely Trump” states and five states without sufficient information, Trump only needs a combined 81 delegates of the 405 in play.  In this scenario, Trump only needs to win two states between Virginia, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Tennessee, all of which he holds comfortable polling leads in.

When prognosticating any number of scenarios, it seems that every possible outcome points to Trump.  All indicators suggest that Trump will likely well surpass the 850 delegate benchmark within the next three weeks, setting up a straightforward conclusion to the race.  With this comfortable of a lead, Trump is poised for victories in the golden four states, giving him enough delegates to clinch the nomination.  At some point we have to accept that no other candidate can reach the number of delegates that Trump has obtained.  Gov. John Kasich (Ohio) and Rubio can celebrate second place finishes in New Hampshire and South Carolina respectively, while Trump takes his delegates and runs- all the way to the Republican nomination.

David Wasserman of the acclaimed Cook Political Report explains the power of Blue State Republicans here:

The following two tabs change content below.
  • Bio
  • Latest Posts
My Twitter profileMy Facebook profileMy Instagram profile

E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy

E.J. Smith is Founder of YourSurvivalGuy.com, Managing Director at Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd., a Managing Editor of Richardcyoung.com, and Editor-in-Chief of Youngresearch.com. His focus at all times is on preparing clients and readers for “Times Like These.” E.J. graduated from Babson College in Wellesley, Massachusetts, with a B.S. in finance and investments. In 1995, E.J. began his investment career at Fidelity Investments in Boston before joining Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd. in 1998. E.J. has trained at Sig Sauer Academy in Epping, NH. His first drum set was a 5-piece Slingerland with Zildjians. He grew-up worshiping Neil Peart (RIP) of the band Rush, and loves the song Tom Sawyer—the name of his family’s boat, a Grady-White Canyon 306. He grew up in Mattapoisett, MA, an idyllic small town on the water near Cape Cod. He spends time in Newport, RI and Bartlett, NH—both as far away from Wall Street as one could mentally get. The Newport office is on a quiet, tree lined street not far from the harbor and the log cabin in Bartlett, NH, the “Live Free or Die” state, sits on the edge of the White Mountain National Forest. He enjoys spending time in Key West and Paris. Please get in touch with E.J. at ejsmith@yoursurvivalguy.com To sign up for my free monthly Survive & Thrive letter, click here.
My Twitter profileMy Facebook profileMy Instagram profile

Latest posts by E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy (see all)

  • Early Advice from Her Dad on Tipping at Charlie Trotter’s - February 2, 2023
  • Treasury Bonds Ready to Rock and Roll - February 2, 2023
  • Survive and Thrive February 2023: 4 Life Changing Words: “You Should Try This” - February 1, 2023
  • Tom Brady Retires, Again. Should You? - February 1, 2023
  • Reagan’s America Remembered by Your Survival Guy and More - February 1, 2023

If you enjoyed this post, email it to a friend:

  • Email
  • Print
  • Facebook
  • LinkedIn
  • Twitter
  • WhatsApp

Related Posts

Money 101

Trending

  • 4 Life Changing Words for Your Survival Guy: “You Should Try This”
  • Invest with Peace of Mind and Comfort
  • LOSING POWER: Your Survival Guy's Nightmare Scenario
  • Welcome to Hotel California, Where You Can Never Leave
  • Your Survival Guy's 2022 Super States
  • America's Super States and Stocks that Respect YOU
  • Don't Let Your Lazy Cash Eat all Your Food
  • Stocks Go Up and Down: Get Paid Along the Way
  • The World Economic Forum's Record of Destruction
  • The Rich Seek More from Bank Accounts

Must Reads

  • “Talk to Me, Goose!” Time Flies in Top Gun: Maverick
  • Get Out the Map, Make a Plan, and MAKE IT HAPPEN
  • Investment Advice: Sticking with the Four-Year-Olds
  • How to Avoid Going Back to Work after Retirement
  • The Importance of a Balanced Portfolio
  • GAME ON! Lessons from Street Hockey on Baker Lane
  • Your Survival Guy Prefers Bombardier’s Global Express 7500
  • 4 Life Changing Words for Your Survival Guy: “You Should Try This”
  • Tom Brady Is Proof You Shouldn’t Retire if You Still Love Your Work
  • Invest with Peace of Mind and Comfort
Only if You’re Serious
Crazed Hoarding Is not Preparing
How to Save Rainwater Effectively
Your Survival Guy in Paris
Your Survival Guy's Fishing Stories
Financial Independence, Retire Early
Money 101
Pandemic Creates Virtual Panopticon
Emergency Water Storage
Find Freedom in America
Second Amendment
How Can You Save Money for Your Grandchild
Great Reset
See Who's Missing the Boat
Richard  Young Reports
How You Can Save Money for Your Grandchild
Why Fidelity is Number One
The Best States for Survival
You Invest, They Win
Escape the City
Why Vanguard is Too Big for YOU
Island Life

Copyright © 2023 | Terms & Conditions

loading Cancel
Post was not sent - check your email addresses!
Email check failed, please try again
Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email.