Don’t look now but Vanguard GNMA is up close to 2% over the last four weeks and is even on the year. Remember, half the time you’re going to hate GNMA and half the time you’re going to love it. As the market has struggled, GNMA has performed well. The stock market has been volatile, and my RAGE Gauge is signalling increased risk in America. With an investment like GNMA, which has had no big down years in the last 15, you may be able to create some counterbalancing in your portfolio. This month I am increasing the RAGE Gauge from 80 to 100 to reflect the increased risk in the economy. Now … [Read more...]
Cryptocosm and Life After Google Part V
Operations Management? When I was at Babson College one of our core curriculum courses was Operations Management. And, at the time, I didn’t see the vast opportunities that would unfold from this course. Who wants to spend a career figuring out how to piece together a supply chain or re-tool a factory? Then, when I had an internship at an online grocery delivery start-up, I recognized how fruitful a career in Ops could actually be. Fast forward to today and if you’re an Ops wizard, companies like Walmart or Amazon want to talk with you. Sometimes it’s hard to see the forest through … [Read more...]
Inflated Assets for All and to All a Good Night
Looks like the Fed is keeping the punch bowl full for the holidays with a cheery: “Inflated assets for all and to all a good night.” We’ll see how this plays out when the going gets tough next year. The Fed is already in the danger zone. … [Read more...]
My Concerns as Money Piles Up at Vanguard
Last week Vanguard founder Jack Bogle spoke out about the dangers of index funds, something he helped pioneer. Take a look back at this piece I posted on October 12, 2017 for more depth on the issue. Let the good times roll? Great lyrics from the Cars but it’s a song I can’t get out of my head thinking about the money piling up by the truckload at Vanguard’s back door. We’re talking nearly $300 billion in the first nine months of this year alone. All of that money unloaded and stacked up with the rest of the $4.7 trillion at the firm. That’s a lot of confidence in one company. And maybe … [Read more...]
Is There Anything Better than This at Christmas?
As Christmas approaches is there anything better than an ice-cold oyster and a sip of Prosecco? For me, it’s the combo that reminds me of Summer while Newport is frozen. It’s the counterbalance that makes it fun and it’s the Prosecco that keeps more money in my pocket for compounding. Understanding both concepts, counterbalance and compounding, are key for us all as I explain here: Yesterday’s trashing in the stock market offers us a chance to review the arithmetic of losses and the value in a counterbalanced strategy. Technology shares as represented by the Nasdaq composite index lost … [Read more...]
Vanguard GNMA Up, Nasdaq Drops 3.8%
Yesterday’s trashing in the stock market offers us a chance to review the arithmetic of losses and the value in a counterbalanced strategy. Technology shares as represented by the Nasdaq composite index lost 3.8% on the day. Let’s say, for example you began the day with $10,000 in Nasdaq. By late afternoon, when the market closed, it was worth $9,620 or down 3.8%. You now need (not a good word in investing) a gain of 4% to get back to even. Now, imagine a string of ten days like yesterday, or a 38% decline. A 61% gain is needed just to get back to even, or where you began with … [Read more...]
Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Sounds the Alarm on Index Funds
You pay attention when the founder of the Vanguard Group, Jack Bogle speaks. As the father of the index fund it would be hard not to include Mr. Bogle’s bust on the Mount Rushmore of financial legends. Therefore, when Bogle speaks, I listen. As do thousands of his groupies known as "Bogleheads." “There no longer can be any doubt that the creation of the first index mutual fund was the most successful innovation—especially for investors—in modern financial history,” writes Bogle here, “The question we need to ask ourselves now is: What happens if it becomes too successful for its own … [Read more...]
Maximize Your Retirement by Leaving Income Taxes Behind, Part II
You may recall this piece I wrote to you, Maximize Your Retirement by Leaving Income Taxes Behind. A reader friend of mine wrote and asked why our favored state of New Hampshire didn’t make the cut. After all, he noted, what’s not to like about no sales or ordinary income taxes? Agreed. But unfortunately, NH does levy a five percent tax on dividends and interest—a form of income especially in retirement. There’s always room for improvement. New Hampshire legislators introduced SB 404 on March 15, 2018, which would have phased out the five percent tax over a five-year period and ultimately … [Read more...]
Top Gun: The Fed’s Powell in a Danger Zone
“When we were first starting out our mortgage rate was ten percent, not a two percent adjustable.” --says any parent who bought a home in the 1970s Remember when you understood how the banking system worked? They lent you money, you bought a home, paid them back for what felt like the rest of your life and dreamed of a mortgage burning party. The bank was happy, you had a roof over your head and they spread more money around town. In other words, the fractional banking system worked. Today? Sure, houses are being bought and sold. But who’s really … [Read more...]
Cryptocosm and Life After Google Part IV
You’re witnessing what happens when markets dry-up as shown here with bitcoin (see chart below). I've been warning readers about what George Gilder calls the "cryptocosm." (Read Parts I, II and III). If you have been hitching your wagon to cryptocurrencies, you might have been enduring a rude awakening this week. Steven Russolillo, writing at The Wall Street Journal, calls it bitcoin's "Week from Hell." He explains Now, another worry has emerged: Cryptocurrency miners, the outfits that solve complex equations to generate new digital coins, seem to be losing interest. The amount of … [Read more...]
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