If the decision were up to me to choose between current Federal Reserve governor Jerome Powell or Stanford University economics professor John Taylor as the next Federal Reserve Chief, I would choose Taylor. At least, of the two, Taylor has a rule named after him. According to the “Taylor Rule,” the Federal Funds rate would be a much higher 3.5% today, not a measly 1%. But the rule isn’t exactly cut and dried. “Its components include the gap between inflation and its target, between economic output and its target, and the ‘neutral’ real (inflation-adjusted) interest rate, which keeps the … [Read more...]
This Market is Smoking-Hot
Over the weekend I received a post-card sized mailer from a local realtor. She was reaching out to residents in my general neighborhood. She has a retired couple interested in buying in the “neighborhood.” Her “clients” want off street parking, an easy to maintain yard, located within walking distance to the center of Newport. Whether this couple exists is neither here nor there. The real estate market, as she points out, is smoking hot and if you’re thinking about selling she wants to hear from you. Pretty clever approach for stressed out buyers or realtors. Which leads me to an article … [Read more...]
How to Attract Amazon’s HQ2
If you’re a small business owner, then you probably can’t relate to the full court press from what seems like all of New England—and the rest of America for that matter—hoping to lure Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos to choose their city or state for its second headquarters. You might be saying to yourself “no one put on a press conference to have me move to start a business.” Which is why I like the approach New Hampshire is taking. Yes, it wants Bezos. But it doesn’t have to fund HQ2 with tax breaks residents end up paying. “Everyone else is still trying to play catchup to this tax incentive we … [Read more...]
Welcome to Hôtel de Crillon: You’ve Arrived
You know you’ve arrived, literally and figuratively, the minute you see Place de la Concorde up on your left and Hôtel de Crillon on your right. As your driver pulls up you are surrounded by regally dressed staff, guiding you to the historic facade as if it’s your movie being premiered. Welcome to the mansion built for Louis XV, and, since July 2017 after a four-year renovation, for you too. The minute you walk inside Hôtel de Crillon you know how Louis XV must have felt. The entrance is unlike that of any hotel I’ve ever been in—it feels like a mansion—there’s no lobby. There’s no check-in … [Read more...]
Economic Freedom: Where does USA Rank?
You may be surprised at how far you need to scan your finger down the list to locate the United States in the Economic Freedom of the World: 2017 Annual Report co-published by the Cato Institute, the Fraser Institute in Canada and more that 70 think tanks around the world. The United States, which has held a spot in the top ten for decades, now ranks 11th. Going back to the period 1980-2000, the U.S. was an economic beast, generally ranked 3rd freest economy in the world behind Hong Kong and Singapore. And then came the decline. After the U.S. ranked 2nd in 2000 it’s been mostly downhill … [Read more...]
October RAGE Gauge
My October Rage Gauge is in and it seems like the frogs in the pot have no idea what’s going on around them. When someone tells me they can handle a 20 percent hit because they’ve “made” so much money in this market, I think to myself, “they haven’t done the math on a 100 percent hit.” Another month has passed and more records have been broken. Now would be a good time to think about protecting your portfolio. You never know when the big hit is going to come. … [Read more...]
You’ve Read the Last Intelligence Report Now What? Part II
Being on the front lines every day talking with investors just like you, it never ceases to amaze me how much you appreciate Dick Young and how he has made you a more comfortable and successful investor. He made you self-reliant. He helped you beat inertia. How? You basically had no choice. You needed to know what he was thinking every month. He got your attention, which reminds me of an interchange we had when I first started working with him back in 1998. My job was to talk with prospective clients, learn about their situations and see if there was a way we could help. Prospects would … [Read more...]
Buffett’s Flying J Invests in the Energy Revolution
“A sucker is born every minute, and Warren Buffett just proved it. He agreed to spend an undisclosed sum of his shareholders’ money to buy a controlling stake in Pilot Flying J, the truck-stop chain that sells food, coffee and diesel fuel to truckers”, writes Holman Jenkins, Jr. in his WSJ column. “After all, aren’t truckers about to be replaced by robots, and diesel by battery power?” Not so fast he continues, “The sucker in this scenario, we add, is anyone who believed such futuristic forecasts in the first place” Changing gears, I had a discussion about natural gas this week with a … [Read more...]
You Are on the Most Beautiful Boulevard in Paris
You won't believe your good fortune. You just arrived in Paris, checked in to your room at Hotel Franklin Roosevelt and decided to turn left on to Rue Clement Marot. You are on your way to the most beautiful boulevard in Paris: Avenue Montaigne. You note, in case you get hungry later, that across the street is the iconic brasserie Chez Andre. Life is good. You are in Paris’ Golden Triangle or Triangle D'or, a mix of business, culture, shopping boutiques, fashion houses and lunching at L’Avenue. Lucky you. Triangle D’or, located on the right bank, in the 8th arrondissement, is shaped by … [Read more...]
How it Feels to be Rich like Bezos
What makes Jeff Bezos tick? You. From the very beginning Jeff Bezos has always been about the customer. And that ethos flows through the company like a package from your computer to your doorstep. To Bezos, if the customer isn’t satisfied, what’s the point of being in business? And the Smith house is satisfied. At times it feels like an Amazon fulfillment center with all the boxes. How does Amazon do it? Driving past the gargantuan Amazon building in Fall River, MA, going 70 mph, it literally takes several seconds. It’s sheer size is breathtaking. It looks like it belongs in another … [Read more...]
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