Your Survival Guy

Preparing your investments and family for when disaster strikes.

Disclosure

  • Home
  • Your Survival
    • EMP Threat
    • Tucker Explains
    • Newport Gas Outage
    • Water
      • Emergency Water Storage
      • Let There Be Water
    • Get Your Gun and Your Training Now
    • Satellite Phones
    • Navy SEAL Survival Kit
  • Your Money
    • Coronavirus Infects Stock Market
    • Looking for a Better America
    • You Invest, They Win
    • Where to Keep Your Cash
    • Paris
    • How to Buy a Boat
    • Dead or Alive? The Future of Long-Term Investing
    • Is Vanguard too Big?
    • Cryptocosm and Life After Google
    • The Last Intelligence Report
    • The Truth Behind the S&P 500
    • RAGE Gauge
    • How Many “Retirees” Will Keep Working?
    • Your Retirement Life
    • You’ll Love This if You’re Dreaming of an Active Retirement Life
  • Weapons
    • Self Defense
    • Every Family Should Own at Least One Shotgun: Here Are Three
  • About Me
    • Preparing for Times Like These
    • My Videos/Pics
    • Music
      • RIP Neil Peart: You Will Always Be Remembered as a “Modern-Day Warrior”
  • You
    • Our Cabin on Kodiak, Alaska
    • If You Are in Pain, this May Help. It Helped Me.
    • How to Save for a Grandchild
    • FIRE! Financial Independence, Retire Early
    • Compound Interest
    • Arithmetic of Portfolio Losses
    • Maximum Portfolio Withdrawal Rate
    • An Efficient Frontier
    • Retirement Compounders
    • Counterbalanced Total Returns
  • Survive & Thrive
    • January 2021
    • December 2020
    • November 2020
    • October 2020
    • September 2020
    • August 2020
    • July 2020
    • June 2020
    • May 2020
    • April 2020
    • March 2020
    • February 2020
    • January 2020
    • December 2019
    • November 2019
    • October 2019
    • September 2019
    • August 2019
    • July 2019
    • June 2019
    • May 2019
    • April 2019
    • March 2019
    • February 2019
    • January 2019
    • December 2018
    • November 2018
    • October 2018
    • September 2018
    • August 2018
    • July 2018
    • June 2018
    • May 2018
    • April 2018
    • March 2018
    • February 2018
    • Welcome

How to Survive the Calm before the Storm

August 23, 2016 By E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy

storm cloudCentral banks are running this market. It’s not real. It feels like a ghost town. But what are investors to do? Well, you may be aware that pensions are writing puts on volatility. In other words they’re offering downside protection to investors. Nice business in calm markets, but if the markets do go down, pensions will be on the hook. It’s yet another short-sighted view on the part of the so called fiduciaries. Yes, markets are calm. But as we enter the heart of hurricane season New Englanders and those who live on the Eastern Seaboard know it’s better to be wary of the calm and to be ready for the storm. As an investor, your financial survival depends on you being ready and you being patient while others are being antsy. I like what James Mackintosh of the WSJ writes here:

Wall Street has long seen central-bank action through the lens of the options market, since Alan Greenspan’s tenure as Fed chairman. The “Greenspan put” has under current Fed chief Janet Yellen become the “Yellen put,” named for an option used to protect against falling prices.

If the Fed offers free insurance, there is no point buying your own, which ought to keep the price of puts—that is, implied volatility—down.

Faith in how far central banks will protect against losses comes and goes, though. In market-speak, the Yellen put is less out of the money if a smaller price fall pushes the Fed to act. At the moment, investors seem to think the put is barely out of the money at all.

The danger, then, is not so much complacency about markets, but complacency about central banks. The lesson of the past seven years is that policy makers will step in every time disaster strikes. But investors tempted to rely on the central banks should note that disasters did still strike, and markets had big falls before help arrived. The time to buy insurance is when it is cheap, and for the U.S. stock market, that is now.

The following two tabs change content below.
  • Bio
  • Latest Posts
My Twitter profileMy Facebook profileMy Instagram profile

E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy

E.J. Smith is Founder of YourSurvivalGuy.com, Managing Director at Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd., a Managing Editor of Richardcyoung.com, and Editor-in-Chief of Youngresearch.com. His focus at all times is on preparing clients and readers for “Times Like These.” E.J. graduated from Babson College in Wellesley, Massachusetts, with a B.S. in finance and investments. In 1995, E.J. began his investment career at Fidelity Investments in Boston before joining Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd. in 1998. E.J. has trained at Sig Sauer Academy in Epping, NH. His first drum set was a 5-piece Slingerland with Zilldjians. He grew-up worshiping Neil Peart (RIP) of the band Rush, and loves the song Tom Sawyer—the name of his family’s boat, a Grady-White Canyon 306. He grew up in Mattapoisett, MA, an idyllic small town on the water near Cape Cod. He spends time in Newport, RI and Bartlett, NH—both as far away from Wall Street as one could mentally get. The Newport office is on a quiet, tree lined street not far from the harbor and the log cabin in Bartlett, NH, the “Live Free or Die” state, sits on the edge of the White Mountain National Forest. He enjoys spending time in Key West and Paris. Please get in touch with E.J. at ejsmith@yoursurvivalguy.com
My Twitter profileMy Facebook profileMy Instagram profile

Latest posts by E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy (see all)

  • A President Speaks: “Hard Work Never Killed Anybody” - January 20, 2021
  • I’ve Been in Richard Young’s Maximizers for Years - January 20, 2021
  • Smith Family Robinson in Live Free or Die, NH - January 19, 2021
  • Are $2,000 Checks Going to Rebuild NYC? - January 15, 2021
  • The Fed is Sacrificing Retirees to Save the Banks - January 15, 2021

If you enjoyed this post, email it to a friend:

  • Email
  • Print
  • Facebook
  • LinkedIn
  • Twitter
  • WhatsApp

Related Posts

Trending

  • H2O, Skiing, Hiding A$$ET$, Bitcoin, Ammo & More
  • There's Always a Way Forward for Americans Like YOU
  • America 2022: Time to Take Back What's Ours
  • What Living in Two Americas Looks Like Today
  • Why Buying Bonds Matters in Times Like These
  • How Are You Doing on a Local Level?
  • Stocks: Are You Sticking Your Neck Out Too Far?
  • Great Reset, Swiss Way, and Living YOUR WAY
  • February RAGE Gauge: Americans Focusing on What's In Front of Them
  • Tucker Explains: Who Is Biden Nominee Kristen Clarke?

YOUR SURVIVAL GUY MUST READS

  • Great Reset, Swiss Way, and Living YOUR WAY
  • To Where Will You Flee?
  • RCY’s Brand New Investing Program – 100% Swiss
  • Victoria Spartz Upsets Democrats’ Biggest Hope for a Flip
  • RIP Tommy Heinsohn
  • Stealing Your Dollars in the Dead of Night
  • Why Americans Love Trump and Their Country
  • “Trump Deserves It” Cries the Left: Fall in Line—or Else
  • Why Vanguard is too Big: Part V: How You’re Being Forgotten
  • A Lesson from Legends: “Don’t Confuse Activity with Achievement”
Only if You’re Serious
Only if You’re Serious
Only if You’re Serious
Escape the City
Smith Family Robinson
Only if You’re Serious
Why Vanguard is Too Big for YOU
See Who's Missing the Boat
You Invest, They Win
Emergency Water Storage
Emergency Water Storage
Emergency Water Storage
Why Fidelity is Number One

Copyright © 2021 | Terms & Conditions

loading Cancel
Post was not sent - check your email addresses!
Email check failed, please try again
Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email.