On Black Friday, Americans swarmed gun shops across America, buying all manner of firearms. The FBI reported that the day saw a record 203,086 requests for instant background checks (NICS). Background checks aren't a perfect measure of gun sales because some requests are rejected, and some requests are for more than one firearm. But as a measure of intensity for the firearms market, the NICS number is superb. But what does all that gun buying mean? Americans are possibly afraid of future laws restricting gun purchases. But they are also keenly aware of their own survival responsibility … [Read more...]
What do I think of Bitcoin? Part IV
When exactly should you start worrying about bitcoin volatility? Online trading platforms are beginning to get concerned about the crypto-currency's meteoric rise. Hannah Murphy writes for the Financial Times: Bitcoin’s value has risen more than 850 per cent from about $1,000 at the start of the year to a high on Monday of $9,747, an ascent that masks dramatic drops along the way. IG Group, the world’s largest online trading platform, told the Financial Times it had suspended trading of some of its bitcoin derivatives on Monday after roaring demand for the products left the company facing … [Read more...]
Why We Have the Second Amendment
The following was published in the local paper The Conway Daily Sun over Thanksgiving weekend. It was written by Isaac Hadam, a 17-year old Madison, New Hampshire resident who is president of the Constitutional Awareness Pact, which encourages everyone to read and understand the U.S. Constitution. In the wake of the horrific shootings in Las Vegas and Texas, some people are clamoring for classic “gun control” laws. Senators Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and Chris Murphy (D-CT) have led the charge after this recent act of evil in Texas. Others have been more radical by calling for the complete … [Read more...]
What do I think of Bitcoin? Part III
The late great Richard Russell, writing about the third phase of a bull market, called it the speculative phase. The third phase was when the average Joe couldn’t stand missing the boat. The third phase was when momentum would take over, and any reasonable measure of valuation would be kicked to the curb. Bitcoin certainly seems to me to be in a third phase, but it also feels too young to even begin measuring which phase we’re in—the whole thing feels like a speculative third phase to me. Steven Russolillo of the WSJ, an expert on bitcoin writes, “Bitcoin, which started 2017 at … [Read more...]
What do I think of Bitcoin? Part II
While I don’t like bitcoin as an investment, blockchain technology is here to stay. What is blockchain technology? Imagine all the costs, paperwork, and third parties involved to buy a home. Just to refinance a mortgage costs around a percent, to do what? Answer: To make sure there is trust. To make sure there’s a system of recourse in case trust isn’t enough. Blockchain technology allows two parties to do business by locking an agreement into a public ledger for all to see. Sound crazy? So did the internet back in the early 90s. So did Airbnb. Let someone stay in another person’s house for … [Read more...]
States Scrambling to Refinance before Tax Reforms
With the possible elimination of tax exemptions for state and local debt in the tax reform bill being pushed through Congress, states that rely on debt refinancing are scrambling to borrow before the end of the year. Any investor or stakeholder in industry tied to a government tax break or subsidy should consider this a wake up call. What the government can give with the stroke of a pen, it can also take away with the stroke of a pen. Ethanol mandates, electric vehicle subsidies, renewable energy programs, R&D tax deductions, and on and on. If your business, or a business you invest in … [Read more...]
Bubbles like the F-35 Boondoggle Fueled by Cash
What type of bubbles are being fueled by cheap cash? Bitcoin, da Vinci, and yes, fighter jets like the F-35 boondoggle. As Kelley Beaucar Vlahos executive editor of The American Conservative points out about the Washington bubble, “Then there is the expense to the taxpayer, which as of June is projected to be more than $406 billion to complete, and another $1.4 trillion over the life of the programto be maintained. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) said at the time there was a 60 percent increase in the cost estimates from 2001 to 2012 due to three major restructurings of the … [Read more...]
Broke States Trying New Tricks to Wrangle Lending
With faith quickly disappearing in the ability of Illinois and Connecticut to pay their general obligation debts, the states are employing a new method that draws directly from tax revenues to secure financing. The Wall Street Journal editorial board provides the example of Puerto Rico as a warning that this gambit may not work out as well as intended. The editors write: Detroit’s Chapter 9 bankruptcy in 2013 set a precedent by subverting GO bondholders to pay public workers and retirees. Prior to Detroit, creditors considered GO bonds sacrosanct and figured courts would compel local … [Read more...]
Trust in Money, Store of Value
How is the trust level in our current monetary system as a “store of value?” Not good, especially if the price of bitcoin or record art sales are any indication of investors looking for places to stash their money. Da Vinci Christ Painting Sells for $450 Million Bloomberg's Katya Kazakina writes: “Jesus Christ.” That was the reaction of mega art dealer Larry Gagosian after a rediscovered painting by Leonardo da Vinci became the most expensive work ever sold, soaring to $450.3 million at a Christie’s auction in New York on Wednesday. Alex Rotter, the auction house’s co-chairman … [Read more...]
What’s up with Boston Bruin’s Goaltender Tuukka Rask?
If I had to describe the Boston Bruin's early season struggles it would be “injuries and youth." But, the one area where there should be stability and senior leadership is in the position of goaltender. That has certainly not been the case with the lack of performance from veteran goaltender Tuukka Rask. The Boston Globe's Fluto Shinzawa explains the situation here (subscription may be required): For the last three full seasons, Tuukka Rask fell short of the Vezina Trophy-winning standard he established in 2013-14. The Bruins believed they had identified why Rask could not meet the threshold … [Read more...]
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