Remember when interest rates were zero? When stocks were booming? Now with tiny interest rate increases, the NASDAQ is down a third, bitcoin is in ruins, and cryptocurrency accounts are in lockdown. What gives? In a word: Speculation. When the risk-free rate of return is nothing for years and years, and then investors stick their necks out with retirement money into areas where they don’t belong, it’s dangerous. This isn’t to say there won’t be a rebound. In my observation, when investors start losing more than, say, 15%, the sell orders start flying. They can’t handle the losses, and in … [Read more...]
Kellogg Cuts Loose with Split Plan
Kellogg has announced a plan to split into three businesses. The largest leftover business will be made up of the company's snack business, which produces 80% of the revenues for the company in its current configuration. The company will split off its cereal business and its plant-based-foods unit into separate companies. Annie Gasparro reports for The Wall Street Journal: Kellogg Co. said it plans to break up its business into three companies, seeking to jump-start its larger, faster-growing snacks business while helping its namesake cereal brands regain their footing on supermarket … [Read more...]
RECESSION? Dow 25,000, $8 Gas, Rising Interest Rates, Spell Mid-term Crack Up
When you spend a lifetime working and saving where hours turn into days, weeks, months, and years; you probably have something to show for it. Days do feel like years in times like these. Time stands still. But not all is lost especially if you’re with me. Imagine my headline as we round the corner into the midterm elections. Who’s to blame for that? Who did that? Look, I’m Your Survival Guy. I’m Your Rich Man Poor Man and a Prudent Man to boot. I know from experience the pain of falling markets is much worse than the comfort of rising ones. That’s why I write to you daily about focusing on … [Read more...]
Will the Fed Stick to Its Course?
After decades of low-interest rates, inflation has finally caught up to the Fed. America never should have been in this position. Everyone knew that pulling demand from the future with low rates would eventually catch up to the Fed, but no one seemed to worry about that. The value of the dollar has been regularly falling since America came off the gold standard, and in the 21st Century, it's been continuing that trend. But during the Biden era, the rate of dollar value destruction has accelerated. Now the Fed has a chance to make it right, or at least clean up some of the mess they … [Read more...]
When Markets Fall, All Is Not Lost
When most investors are simply scurrying for some peace of mind, that's the time for you to think long-term. What’s your cash situation like? Can you make it through the next few years? Are there areas where you see opportunities? I know some of you with second homes are thinking about cashing in, for example. The next question is, where do you put the proceeds? It’s not a simple answer. I want you to think about how long it took you to save your money. Think about how many hours, days, weeks, months, and years you worked to get to where you are. This is not a trivial exercise. For most, … [Read more...]
The Fed Needs Aggressive Rate Increases Now
The Fed has simply been talking its book, making bold statements about its intentions to raise rates, but guess what? Talk is cheap. Actually, this kind of talk is quite expensive. Investors are worried the Fed might not be capable of—putting it kindly—cleaning up the mess in aisle two. They need to be aggressive with the rate increases and they need to do it now. Nick Timraos reports for The Wall Street Journal: Federal Reserve officials have spent the past two months getting investors acclimatized to their plans to slow economic growth and combat inflation by raising interest rates … [Read more...]
On the Phone with Mr. Billionaire
Here's a scenario worth considering. It's not a conversation one would have with Your Survival Guy, because I’d hang up after 15 seconds, but look around the web and all these financial firms are promoting feel-good products like ESG that have nothing to do with return on investment. It’s about vacuuming up money. The phone rings and it’s Mr. Billionaire. He's calling to check on his money and lamenting about the crime, the pollution, and the impoverishment. He says, "I want to invest in companies that do good and make the world better. I can afford it. What’s that guy over at that big … [Read more...]
Do You Know How to Structure Your Bond Portfolio?
Do you know how to structure your bond portfolio? When companies issue debt, for example, they put out a spread of maturities and coupons. It reminds me of setting out the spread when sportfishing for sailfish. You have your three lines through the outriggers, for example, on port and starboard with kites keeping them on the surface. You have a couple lines off the stern at high and low depths trying to work the water column. You spread out your options. When it comes to your bond ladder, you want to put a portfolio together that provides income while controlling the two main risks, credit … [Read more...]
Your Survival Guy’s Champagne Taste on a Beer Budget
What’s Your Survival Guy’s solution to satisfy my Champagne taste on a beer budget? One word: Prosecco. Go for the orange labeled Mionetto for $13.99 or any other comparable bottle. Prosecco costs a fraction of what you’ll pay for some Dom—about the same as a twelve-pack of Bud Light bottles. But you’ll look and feel like a high roller popping this Italian bubbly for friends and family. Cheers! Action Line: Keep some in the fridge to make an ordinary night extraordinary. Click here to subscribe to my free monthly Survive & Thrive letter. … [Read more...]
Four Year Old Spends Two Cold Days Alone in Montana’s Wilderness
You know there's no more difficult situation to imagine than your child in danger somewhere you can't help them. That's where one family found itself late last week in Montana, as their son, 4-year-old Ryker, went missing for two days in the woods. The NY Post reports: A missing 4-year-old boy was found safe after surviving two days on his own in the Montana wilderness in cold temperatures over the weekend. Ryker Webb was found Sunday unharmed but “hungry, thirsty and cold” after a two-day search involving ground responders, ATV teams, canine teams, drones, helicopters and a boat unit from … [Read more...]
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