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“Oh, That Wasn’t So Bad”

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UPDATE 9.19.23: The economists at the OECD have predicted that global GDP growth is going to slow next year. Bloomberg’s William Horobin reports:

The world economy is set for a slowdown as interest-rate increases weigh on activity and China’s pandemic rebound disappoints.

Growth will ease to 2.7% in 2024 after an already “sub-par” expansion of 3% this year, according to the latest OECD forecasts. With the exception of 2020, when Covid struck, that would mark the weakest annual expansion since the global financial crisis.

“While high inflation continues to unwind the world economy remains in a difficult place,” OECD Chief Economist Clare Lombardelli told a news conference on Tuesday. “We’re confronting the double challenges of inflation and low growth.”

Inflation and low growth? That sounds like stagflation. That could mean trouble for markets, or it may not. You know Your Survival Guy isn’t in the predictions business, and economists are often wrong, so keep a steady hand on the tiller. And like I wrote below back in June, you’ll come out of this saying “Oh, that wasn’t so bad.”

Your Survival Guy continues to favor a steady, balanced approach in times like these. You’re seeing yields on bonds you can sink your teeth into, and I like dividend-paying stocks. I want you to be paid to be invested in this market. Prices on the S&P 500 come and go. Look at last year, for example. And this market is shallow or an alligator market.

Investment Concerns? Save Money. Get My Friday Email. It’s Free

When investors focus on prices, they live and die by the big ups and downs. It’s the investors who aren’t paying much attention when they realize after ten or fifteen years, “Oh, that wasn’t so bad.” But some retirement investors don’t weather price drops so well. They are absolutely paying attention to their portfolio balance like a hawk. And if it gets below a certain number, they want the pain to stop.

Action Line: In retirement, you’re in spend mode. You want a plan that helps you deal with the ups and downs of prices. You want to prepare yourself for thin markets. You want income. I can help.

P.S. Beware the top-heavy focus of today’s big indexes. Read more in TOP HEAVY: Focus on Big Indexing Could Cause Market Chaos.

Originally posted June 21, 2023.

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E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy

E.J. Smith is Founder of YourSurvivalGuy.com, Managing Director at Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd., a Managing Editor of Richardcyoung.com, and Editor-in-Chief of Youngresearch.com. His focus at all times is on preparing clients and readers for “Times Like These.” E.J. graduated from Babson College in Wellesley, Massachusetts, with a B.S. in finance and investments. In 1995, E.J. began his investment career at Fidelity Investments in Boston before joining Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd. in 1998. E.J. has trained at Sig Sauer Academy in Epping, NH. His first drum set was a 5-piece Slingerland with Zildjians. He grew-up worshiping Neil Peart (RIP) of the band Rush, and loves the song Tom Sawyer—the name of his family’s boat, a Grady-White Canyon 306. He grew up in Mattapoisett, MA, an idyllic small town on the water near Cape Cod. He spends time in Newport, RI and Bartlett, NH—both as far away from Wall Street as one could mentally get. The Newport office is on a quiet, tree lined street not far from the harbor and the log cabin in Bartlett, NH, the “Live Free or Die” state, sits on the edge of the White Mountain National Forest. He enjoys spending time in Key West (RIP JB) and Paris. Please get in touch with E.J. at ejsmith@yoursurvivalguy.com To sign up for my free monthly Survive & Thrive letter, click here.
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