You have been telling me about the inflation you're seeing in your life. It's not good. Inflation can throw all the calculations of a well-planned retirement into chaos. Even people who are still working need to readjust in the face of higher prices. When those old dollars you saved after working hard aren't worth as much as you'd thought they'd be, life gets trickier. Now, Roger Bootle, the man who officially declared inflation dead in a 1996 book title The Death of Inflation: Surviving and Thriving in the Zero Era (no relation to my monthly Survive & Thrive newsletter, which you can … [Read more...]
You Invest, They Win
The founder of the largest hedge fund in the universe, Ray Dalio, tweeted this from Burning Man:
Just back from Burning Man. Reminds me of Woodstock with better art (installations) and less good music. What a great vibe and what amazing creativity!
Photo is with my pal and coworker Jeff Taylor at his great music camp Root Society. If you go next year, 1-5am is best.
Are these the guys you want running your money? You invest, they win. But hey, it’s not about the money. It’s about saving the planet man.
Because if it’s about the money (Dalio has a personal net worth of $19 billion) then this hedge fund lost to a boring Vanguard fund that uses a conventional mix of 60% stocks and 40% bonds.
The article doesn’t come out and name the fund, but perhaps you, as a long-time reader of our websites, know the name: Vanguard Wellington.
You might also know what Vanguard founder, the late, great, Jack Bogle, meant when he said: “The grim irony of investing is that we investors as a group not only don’t get what we pay for, we get precisely what we don’t pay for.”
The captains of the investing universe are living their “best life” at whose expense?
Yours, of course. You invest, they win. Read more below.
Inflation? Yes, Your Survival Guy Paid This For…
Inflation? Yes. Your Survival Guy paid $19.50 per pound for fresh cod last week. I know you’re seeing inflation too because you’re telling me about it. How about buying a boat? New ones are back-ordered for months because of a shortage of resin and off-the-charts demand for new boats. How about used boats? This is anecdotal evidence, but the for sale listings in the back pages of On the Water magazine are scarce. In the past, there would be several pages worth of listings. The most recent issue? Two pages. You can’t find a boat today. Not to mention a good fishing rod and reel to go with … [Read more...]
Your Survival Guy’s Summer Job, Inflation & You
One of my best business experiences was serving fish and chips and scooping ice cream at Oxford Creamery in Mattapoisett, MA, where I grew up. I remember feeling anxious before each shift, knowing I’d be missing out on some fun with my friends, and knowing how slammed work would be. That was especially true on a Friday night when the fish and chips special (with fresh cod from the boats in New Bedford) was the best around. With the line out the door, I had no time to think about missing out on fun with my friends. Waiting on a group of hungry customers fresh off the beach focuses the … [Read more...]
STUFF is BOILING OVER: Are You Paying Attention?
Listen up, are you paying attention? Stuff is boiling over around the world. It’s time you prepare accordingly. In talking with a client yesterday, we discussed whole life insurance. I don’t love it. I much prefer term life which we both agreed on (for me, I just want it until my kids are out of college). He said, “You know, that’s exactly what Peter Lynch used to recommend.” You remember Peter Lynch, don’t you? Author of One Up on Wall Street and famed manager of the Fidelity Magellan fund? His name was legendary in the halls of Fidelity when I was working there (Fidelity #1). In thinking … [Read more...]
Volatile Plunge Reveals Weaknesses in Crypto Speculation
Cryptocurrencies took a nasty plunge yesterday after Chinese authorities cracked down on their use. That institutional response, shortly after Elon Musk revealed that Tesla would no longer be using bitcoin in transactions, was a double whammy that took the wind out of cryptocurrencies across the board. Since the drop, crypto prices have recovered some of what they lost, but nowhere near all. The Wall Street Journal reports: The recent price fall has accelerated after three Chinese entities published a statement that financial institutions shouldn’t accept virtual currencies for payment or … [Read more...]
Your Survival Guy: Kicked to the Street in Boston
Yesterday, a Wednesday in May, clients were in town. The Mooring restaurant in Newport, RI, was packed. I looked to see if there was a graduation. No, just a nice day. Imagine what 4th of July, the official start of summer in Newport, is going to look like. As an aside, I checked out Clarke Cooke House after my meeting to book a table for any Friday or Saturday night. No go. They’re booked well into June—as far out as Resy was accepting them. Better call direct. How about the dining experience? Yesterday, excellent. But, on a recent trip to Boston, we learned you need to guard your table … [Read more...]
Are You The Intelligent Investor You Deserve to Be?
When it comes to your money, I want you to be a survivor. As you can see in my table, stocks have declined by over 30% three times already in this young century, and I’m talking about blue-chip stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. When we look at the tech-laden NASDAQ and the S&P 500, declines have been far more precipitous—declines as high as 68% and 55% respectively. Moving forward, your job will be to survive the wreckage. I’m here to help. In my table below, you’ll see the performance of the Vanguard Wellesley and Wellington funds during these tumultuous periods in history. … [Read more...]
Don’t Take Government’s Word on Inflation, You See It for Yourself
Your Survival Guy is seeing rising prices on stuff we actually use. You need not be confused by some useless and outdated government measurement. You can see it for yourself. Jaewon Kang reports in The Wall Street Journal: Americans accustomed to years of low inflation are beginning to pay sharply higher prices for goods and services as the economy strains to rev back up and the pandemic wanes. Price tags on consumer goods from processed meat to dishwashing products have risen by double-digit percentages from a year ago, according to NielsenIQ. Whirlpool Corp. WHR +1.02% freezers and … [Read more...]
Your Survival Guy: MVP, Cryptos, GUNS, Big Macs & YOU
How are you? Are you thinking about where we are in life right now? Wondering if it will ever go back to “normal?” I know I am. It can get pretty upsetting thinking of how easily they take things away. As if they know what’s best for you and me. They don’t. In thinking about survival, one theme that rings true is our attitude. Do we believe we’ll make it? Do we believe in ourselves? I know I believe in you. When you read about survival stories, oftentimes there’s not a heroic act that separates those who make it from those who don’t. It’s an important reminder to keep in your back pocket. … [Read more...]
The Biggest Part of Successful Stock Investing Is This
You and I are in uncharted waters as we look ahead. The next sixteen years are unknown—but those years will make up a good chunk of your pre-retirement savings or retirement years. Let’s look at the past, in sixteen-year groupings, shall we? (Note: Chart four is only halfway there). As you can see, if you had your choice, you’d want to retire in 1981. But since you can’t do that, there’s plenty to worry about—especially when you start socking away serious money. Why risk it on an all-stocks strategy in your 50s? Your 50s are when you need to be dead serious about smoothing out your … [Read more...]
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